IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/jet/dpaper/dpaper485.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Spillover effects of TTIP on BRICS economies : a dynamic GVC-based CGE model

Author

Listed:
  • Cai, Songfeng
  • Zhang, Yaxiong
  • Meng, Bo

Abstract

This paper uses a GVC (Global Value Chain)-based CGE model to assess the impact of TTIP between the U.S. and the EU on their main trading partners who are mainly engaged at the low end in the division system of global value chains, such as BRICS countries. The simulation results indicate that in general the TTIP would positively impact global trade and economies due to the reduction of both tariff and non-tariff barriers. With great increases in the US–EU bilateral trade, significant economic gains for the U.S. and the EU can be expected. For most BRICS countries, the aggregate exports and GDP suffer small negative impacts from the TTIP, except Brazil, but the inter-country trade within BRICS economies increases due to the substitution effect between the US–EU trade and the imports from BRICS countries when the TTIP commences.

Suggested Citation

  • Cai, Songfeng & Zhang, Yaxiong & Meng, Bo, 2015. "Spillover effects of TTIP on BRICS economies : a dynamic GVC-based CGE model," IDE Discussion Papers 485, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    • Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper485
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ir.ide.go.jp/?action=repository_action_common_download&item_id=37691&item_no=1&attribute_id=22&file_no=1
    File Function: First version, 2015
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anna Strutt & Terrie Walmsley, 2011. "Trade and sectoral impacts of the global financial crisis – a dynamic computable general equilibrium analysis," STUDIES IN TRADE AND INVESTMENT, in: Trade-led growth: A sound strategy for Asia, chapter 14, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
    2. Ianchovichina, Elena & McDougall, Robert, 2000. "Theoretical Structure Of Dynamic Gtap," Technical Papers 28723, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Djoni Hartono & Dominicus Savio Priyarsono & Tien Dung Nguyen & Mitsuo Ezaki, 2007. "Regional Economic Integration And Its Impacts On Growth, Poverty, And Income Distribution: The Case Of Indonesia," Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 138-153, July.
    4. Francois, Joseph & Bradley McDonald, 1996. "Liberalization and Capital Accumulation in the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 310, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    5. Thomas W. Hertel & Terrie Walmsley & Ken Itakura, 2005. "Dynamic Effects Of The "New Age" Free Trade Agreement Between Japan And Singapore," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Philippa Dee & Michael Ferrantino (ed.), Quantitative Methods For Assessing The Effects Of Non-Tariff Measures And Trade Facilitation, chapter 18, pages 483-523, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Thomas W. Hertel & Terrie Walmsley & Ken Itakura, 2005. "Dynamic Effects Of The "New Age" Free Trade Agreement Between Japan And Singapore," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Philippa Dee & Michael Ferrantino (ed.), Quantitative Methods For Assessing The Effects Of Non-Tariff Measures And Trade Facilitation, chapter 18, pages 483-523, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Oksana Harbuzyuk & Stefan Lutz, 2008. "Analyzing trade opening in Ukraine: effects of a customs union with the EU," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 221-238, September.
    8. Ianchovichina, Elena, 2001. "Trade Liberalization in China’s Accession to WTO," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 16, pages 421-445.
    9. Miriam Manchin, 2004. "The Economic Effects of a Russia-EU FTA," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-131/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Itakura, Ken & Lee, Hiro, 2019. "Estimating the Effects of the CPTPP and RCEP in a General Equilibrium Framework with Global Value Chains," Conference papers 333031, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Dazhong Cheng & Jian Wang & Zhiguo Xiao, 2022. "Free trade agreements partnership and value chain linkages: Evidence from China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(8), pages 2532-2559, August.
    3. D. A. Izotov, 2017. "Liberalization of Russia’s trade with the European Union, BRICS, and Trans-Pacific Partnership countries," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 338-345, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bussolo, Maurizio & Lim, Jamus Jerome & Maliszewska, Maryla, 2014. "The Rise of Developing Countries and the Future of Global Saving and Investment," Conference papers 332532, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Hertel, Thomas, 2013. "Global Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 815-876, Elsevier.
    3. Elena Ianchovichina & Terrie Walmsley, 2005. "Impact of China's WTO Accession on East Asia," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 23(2), pages 261-277, April.
    4. Itakura, Ken & Hertel, Thomas & Jeff Reimer, 2003. "The Contribution of Productivity Linkages to the General Equilibrium Analysis of Free Trade Agreements," GTAP Working Papers 1193, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    5. Phouphet Kyophilavong & Xaignasack Lassachack & Thanouxay Volavong, 2016. "Do cash transfers help the poor during trade liberalization? Evidence from Laos," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 355-371, December.
    6. Antimiani, Alessandro & Cernat, Lucian, 2017. "Liberalizing global trade in Mode 5 services: how much is worth?," Conference papers 332872, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Richard Pomfret & Uwe Kaufmann & Christopher Findlay, 2010. "Are Preferential Tariffs Utilized? Evidence from Australian Imports, 2000-9," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2010-13, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    8. Díaz-Bonilla, Carolina, 2007. "Poverty and Income Distribution Under Different Factor Market Assumptions: A Macro-Micro Model," Conference papers 331625, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Gouranga Gopal Das & Soamiely Andriamananjara, 2006. "Hub-and-Spokes Free Trade Agreements in the Presence of Technology Spillovers: An Application to the Western Hemisphere," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(1), pages 33-66, April.
    10. Peter Walkenhorst & Tadashi Yasui, 2004. "Quantitative Assessment of the Benefits of Trade Facilitation," International Trade 0401008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Jeong-Soo OH & Phouphet Kyophilavong, 2015. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Developing Countries: Literature Survey," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(2), pages 86-94, Fabruary.
    12. Huang, Qingbo & Zhang, Xiaohan & Li, Yan, 2023. "Study on the economic effects of China and ASEAN countries from the New International Land-Sea Trade Corridor," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 123-135.
    13. Elisabeth M. Christen & Joseph Francois & Bernard Hoekman, 2012. "CGE Modeling of Market Access in Services," Economics working papers 2012-08, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    14. Higashi, Akiko, 2016. "Analysis of the impact of the decline in crude oil imports on the Japanese economy," Conference papers 332701, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    15. Walmsley, Terrie & Strutt, Anna, 2019. "Modelling Non-Tariff Barriers as an Exporter Cost," Conference papers 333043, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    16. Rolf J. Langhammer & Daniel Piazolo & Horst Siebert, 2002. "Assessing Proposals for a Transatlantic Free Trade Area," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 57(02), pages 161-186, June.
    17. Cretegny, Laurent, 2006. "Liberalizing Services in Switzerland and with the European Union," Conference papers 331543, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    18. Fontagné, Lionel & Foure, Jean, 2016. "Is Trade Facilitation a Free Lunch? A General Equilibrium Approach," Conference papers 332757, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    19. Stone, Susan F. & Strutt, Anna & Hertel, Thomas, 2009. "Assessing Socioeconomic Impacts of Transport Infrastructure Projects in the Greater Mekong Subregion," Conference papers 331872, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    20. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M. Stern, 2003. "Multilateral, Regional and Bilateral Trade‐Policy Options for the United States and Japan," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(6), pages 803-828, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brazil; India; China; Russia; United States; Europe; International trade; Economic conditions; Trade policy; TTIP; BRICS; GVC; NTBs; Spillover;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper485. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michitaka Imamitsu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/idegvjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.