Modeling International Trade Flows Between Eastern European Countries and OECD Countries
Our paper deals with econometric developments for the estimation of the gravity model which lead to convergent parameter estimates even when a correlation exists between the explanatory variables and the specific unobservable characteristics of each unit. We implement panel data econometric techniques to characterize bilateral trade flows between heterogeneous economies. Our econometric results based on a sample of Eastern European countries (EEC) and OECD countries over a 18 year period highlight the importance of the taking into account of unobservable heterogeneity to obtain a specification in accordance with data properties and unbiased coefficients. The fixed effect factor decomposition (FEVD) technique appears the more suitable for this purpose. We focus more specifically on EEC countries belonging to the last wave of adhesion (Bulgaria and Romania). Since 1990, these countries have moved towards a market economy and more democracy. Our econometric results provide clear evidence in favor of the traditional trade theory based on comparative advantage which suggests a reallocation of labor intensive industry towards EEC generating a complementary specialization.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published in: Applied Economics Letters, 2009, 16(15), 1547-1554|
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- Tamim Bayoumi & Barry J. Eichengreen, 1995.
"Is Regionalism Simply a Diversion? Evidence from the Evolution of the EC and EFTA,"
IMF Working Papers
95/109, International Monetary Fund.
- Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1997. "Is Regionalism Simply a Diversion? Evidence from the Evolution of the EC and EFTA," NBER Chapters, in: Regionalism versus Multilateral Trade Arrangements, NBER-EASE Volume 6, pages 141-168 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1995. "Is Regionalism Simply a Diversion? Evidence from the Evolution of the EC and EFTA," CEPR Discussion Papers 1294, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1995. "Is Regionalism Simply a Diversion? Evidence From the Evolution of the EC and EFTA," NBER Working Papers 5283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007.
"Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
- Scott L. Baier & Jeffrey H. Bergstrand, 2005. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members’ international trade?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2005-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Aitken, Norman D, 1973. "The Effect of the EEC and EFTA on European Trade: A Temporal Cross-Section Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(5), pages 881-92, December.
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