Housing Policy and Fertility Behavior in Egypt: Evidence from the 1996 Rental Liberalization

Egypt’s demographic trajectory has shifted markedly over recent decades, with fertility declines in the 1980s and 1990s followed by a reversal that peaked at 3.5 children per woman in 2014. While previous research has examined determinants such as women’s employment, contraceptive use, and migration, the role of housing policy remains largely unexplored. This study investigates the impact of Egypt’s 1996 rental market liberalization on fertility. Using four waves of the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS) combined with district-level housing data from the 2006 Census, we exploit geographic and temporal variation in exposure to the reform. We examine whether women of marriageable age in 1996 living in districts with greater availability of liberalized rental units experienced different fertility outcomes. Results show that exposure to the reform increased the likelihood of childbearing and positively affected other fertility measures, including age at first birth and parity at ages 25, 30, and 35. Evidence suggests that earlier marriage is the main mechanism, consistent with the reform lowering housing constraints for young couples.