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Beyond EU-US Trade Dynamics: TTIP Effects Related to Foreign Direct Investment and Innovation

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  • Jungmittag, Andre

    () (FH Frankfurt)

  • Welfens, Paul J. J.

    () (University of Wuppertal)

Abstract

The international economic debate on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) has focused mainly on trade induced real income gains while the FDI related and innovation induced benefits have been largely neglected, although the EU and the US are leading FDI host countries and FDI source countries. Moreover, from a theoretical perspective a knowledge production function has to be considered in order to analyze FDI and innovation dynamics – and this can then be linked to output and economic growth, respectively. It is argued that such a Schumpeterian approach for an open economy is needed to understand deep integration dynamics while the standard CGE model used by Francois et al (2013) leads to an underestimation of deep integration projects such as TTIP. The panel data estimation of knowledge production functions for 20 EU countries between 2002-2012 shows clear empirical evidence that a rise of the number of researchers and of the FDI stock-GDP ratio (or related variables) will raise patent applications. Additionally, a higher per capita income – that could reflect trade related real income gains in the context of TTIP – also contributes to new knowledge and a fortiori to higher GDP. Time series data analysis for Germany indicates additionally that FDI induced higher innovation dynamics will raise output – combining trade benefits and FDI/innovation related real income gains plus transatlantic macroeconomic interdependency effects a real income gain of nearly 2% should be expected for Germany (and the EU): considerably higher than what the official TTIP report for the European Commission has suggested. The results also suggest positive employment effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Jungmittag, Andre & Welfens, Paul J. J., 2017. "Beyond EU-US Trade Dynamics: TTIP Effects Related to Foreign Direct Investment and Innovation," IZA Discussion Papers 10946, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10946
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    Cited by:

    1. Paul J.J. Welfens, 2017. "The True Cost of BREXIT for the UK: A Research Note," EIIW Discussion paper disbei234, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    knowledge production function; innovation; FDI; TTIP; empirical analysis; EU;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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