Price Transmission Dynamics in Ghana fs Rice Market: Spatial and Macroeconomic Analysis

With soaring domestic demand, Ghana has become highly dependent on imported rice, thereby tying domestic rice prices more closely to international prices. This study aims to analyze how international and domestic rice prices interact, as well as how imported prices affect domestic prices across regions. This study applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze the long-run relationships and short-run dynamics of imported prices, domestic prices, world prices, and overall inflation. The data used are monthly data from ten major rice markets in Ghana for the period 2012 to 2024. The results indicate a long-run relationship between imported and domestic rice prices, and some degree of integration with the global market. Price transmission is faster in coastal markets but slower in the north, where shocks can take more than a year to be reflected in local prices. Ineffective policies, poor infrastructure, and macroeconomic instability explain why Ghana is largely a price taker. This study clarifies region-specific cross-market price transmission, identifying a clear south-north transmission gradient and slower adjustment speeds compared to those found in previous studies.