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Reforms and External Balances in Southern Europe and Ireland

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  • Luís A. V. Catão

Abstract

High external deficits in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain are widely regarded as culprits of the post-2008 financial crises in the eurozone. This paper examines the main drivers of those imbalances and discusses how the mix of macroeconomic adjustment and structural reforms implemented in the last few years has affected the evolution of those countries’ external positions. The analysis combines modern theories of the current account and of the real exchange rate with panel data regressions to shed light on the standing of those economies’ external “competitiveness” broadly defined.

Suggested Citation

  • Luís A. V. Catão, 2018. "Reforms and External Balances in Southern Europe and Ireland," Working Papers REM 2018/27, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
  • Handle: RePEc:ise:remwps:wp0272018
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    File URL: https://rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/wps/pdf/REM_WP_027_2018.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
    2. Catão, Luis A.V. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2014. "External liabilities and crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 18-32.
    3. Menzie Chinn, 2006. "A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates: Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 115-143, January.
    4. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, January.
    5. Philip R. Lane, 2011. "The Dynamics of Ireland?s Net External Position," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp388, IIIS.
    6. Alexander Popov & Neeltje Van Horen, 2015. "Exporting Sovereign Stress: Evidence from Syndicated Bank Lending during the Euro Area Sovereign Debt Crisis," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(5), pages 1825-1866.
    7. Cacciatore, Matteo & Duval, Romain & Fiori, Giuseppe & Ghironi, Fabio, 2016. "Short-term pain for long-term gain: Market deregulation and monetary policy in small open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 358-385.
    8. Jaewoo Lee & Jonathan David Ostry & Alessandro Prati & Luca A Ricci & Gian M Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "Exchange Rate Assessments; CGER Methodologies," IMF Occasional Papers 261, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Andrea Gerali & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2016. "Macroeconomic Effects of Simultaneous Implementation of Reforms," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 42-65, April.
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