IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ise/gheswp/wp522014.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Money Supply and the Credit Market in Early Modern Economies: The Case of Eighteenth-Century Lisbon

Author

Listed:
  • Leonor Freire Costa,
  • M. Manuela Rocha,
  • Paulo Brito

Abstract

In this paper, we address the partial equilibrium functioning of the shortterm credit market in the Eighteenth-century Lisbon and its response to three major events: massive gold inflows from Brazil, a catastrophic destruction of capital caused by the 1755 earthquake and the enactment of a 5% legal ceiling on interest rates 1757. We build a time series for the market interest rate, and a regression shows money stock and real estates as two significant variables. Interest rates were affected negatively by the former and positively by the latter. We conclude that changes in the money stock tended to operate through the supply of loanable funds. The wealth effect, measured by the stock of real estate, operated over demand and tended to be the most significant effect among several other possible countervailing effects (e.g., the impact of wealth effects on supply, the informational effects of collaterals). The inflow of gold clearly generated a liquidity which by itself explained the downward trend in interest rates up until around 1780. However, the huge variations experienced by the stock of capital after the earthquake also explains the steadiness of interest rates in a period when the inflow of money started to recede. For the whole period during which the 5 % ceiling on interest rates was in force we do not find any evidence to confirm the existence of disequilibrium credit rationing: the notional interest rate predicted by our model was very close to the 5% legal ceiling.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonor Freire Costa, & M. Manuela Rocha, & Paulo Brito, 2014. "Money Supply and the Credit Market in Early Modern Economies: The Case of Eighteenth-Century Lisbon," Working Papers GHES - Office of Economic and Social History 2014/52, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, GHES - Social and Economic History Research Unit, Universidade de Lisboa.
  • Handle: RePEc:ise:gheswp:wp522014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ghes.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/wp/wp522014.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Regina Grafe & Alejandra Irigoin, 2012. "A stakeholder empire: the political economy of Spanish imperial rule in America," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 65(2), pages 609-651, May.
    2. Greif, Avner, 1989. "Reputation and Coalitions in Medieval Trade: Evidence on the Maghribi Traders," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 857-882, December.
    3. repec:ise:gheswp:wp512015 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Barro, Robert J., 1987. "Government spending, interest rates, prices, and budget deficits in the United Kingdom, 1701-1918," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 221-247, September.
    5. North, Douglass C. & Weingast, Barry R., 1989. "Constitutions and Commitment: The Evolution of Institutions Governing Public Choice in Seventeenth-Century England," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 803-832, December.
    6. Pereira, Alvaro S., 2009. "The Opportunity of a Disaster: The Economic Impact of the 1755 Lisbon Earthquake," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(2), pages 466-499, June.
    7. Hoffman, Philip T. & Postel-Vinay, Gilles & Rosenthal, Jean-Laurent, 1992. "Private Credit Markets in Paris, 1690–1840," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(2), pages 293-306, June.
    8. Edvinsson, Rodney, 2011. "Shadow interest rates in Stockholm and the integration of early financial markets, 1660–1685: was Heckscher right?1," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 309-329, December.
    9. Sussman, Nathan & Yafeh, Yishay, 2006. "Institutional Reforms, Financial Development and Sovereign Debt: Britain 1690–1790," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 66(4), pages 906-935, December.
    10. Regina Grafe, 2012. "Distant Tyranny: Markets, Power, and Backwardness in Spain, 1650-1800," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9625.
    11. Leonor Freire Costa & Maria Manuela Rocha & Paulo Brito, 2014. "Notarial activity and credit demand in Lisbon during the Eighteenth-Century," Working Papers GHES - Office of Economic and Social History 2014/51, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, GHES - Social and Economic History Research Unit, Universidade de Lisboa.
    12. Drelichman, Mauricio, 2005. "The curse of Moctezuma: American silver and the Dutch disease," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 349-380, July.
    13. Quinn, Stephen, 2001. "The Glorious Revolution'S Effect On English Private Finance: A Microhistory, 1680–1705," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 61(3), pages 593-615, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rates; credit markets; Brazilian gold; Lisbon earthquake. JEL classification : N13; N23; N43;

    JEL classification:

    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N23 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N43 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Europe: Pre-1913

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ise:gheswp:wp522014. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Natalia Nobre). General contact details of provider: https://aquila1.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/research/ghes .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.