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"Monitoring daily unemployment at risk"

Author

Listed:
  • Helena Chuliá

    (Riskcenter- IREA and Department of Econometrics and Statistics, University of Barcelona.)

  • Ignacio Garrón

    (Department of Econometrics and Statistics, University of Barcelona.)

  • Jorge M. Uribe

    (Faculty of Economics and Business Studies, Open University of Catalonia.)

Abstract

Using a high-frequency framework, we show that the Auroba-Diebold-Scotti (ADS) daily business conditions index significantly increases the accuracy of U.S. unemployment nowcasts in real-time. This is of particular relevance in times of recession, such as the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic, when the unemployment rate is prone to rise steeply. Based on our results, the ADS index presents itself as a better predictor than the financial indicators widely used by the literature and central banks, including both interest and credit spreads and the VXO.

Suggested Citation

  • Helena Chuliá & Ignacio Garrón & Jorge M. Uribe, 2022. ""Monitoring daily unemployment at risk"," IREA Working Papers 202211, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jul 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:ira:wpaper:202211
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    File URL: http://www.ub.edu/irea/working_papers/2022/202211.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mogliani, Matteo & Simoni, Anna, 2021. "Bayesian MIDAS penalized regressions: Estimation, selection, and prediction," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 833-860.
    2. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    3. Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan & Valkanov, Rossen, 2016. "A MIDAS approach to modeling first and second moment dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 315-334.
    4. Lima, Luiz Renato & Meng, Fanning & Godeiro, Lucas, 2020. "Quantile forecasting with mixed-frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1149-1162.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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