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Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2019: Electrification for the low-carbon transition

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This edition of the Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO) analyses the role of electrification in global transition pathways to a low Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions economy. Electricity is found to be an increasingly important energy carrier in final energy consumption already in the absence of stronger climate policies than those currently in place (Reference scenario), while enhanced electrification of final energy demand is a crucial element of the 2°C temperature change scenario, paving the way to climate neutrality. The 2°C target could be achieved by simultaneously transforming various elements of the energy system: shifting final energy demand from mainly fossil fuels towards electricity and low-carbon synthetic fuels mainly derived from electricity; decarbonising power generation; increasing energy efficiency in end-uses, which is favoured by further electrification; and mobilising novel options to better accommodate high shares of intermittent renewable electricity sources, such as demand-side load management and power storage. This report further shows that the 2°C target is technically possible at relatively low cost for the overall economy (global GDP reduction below 1% across all sensitivities compared to Reference in 2050). This would also bring along co-benefits for air quality. In order to explore the role that electrification can play as an emissions mitigation option, a number of sensitivity variants on key parameters impacting the energy system – energy prices, cost of technologies, non-economic drivers related to behaviour and policy – are conducted. The role of electricity is examined by large sector (industry, transport, buildings, power generation), with a particular regional focus on the EU and China and a sectoral focus on road transport electrification.

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  • KERAMIDAS Kimon & DIAZ VAZQUEZ Ana R. & WEITZEL Matthias & VANDYCK Toon & TAMBA Marie & TCHUNG-MING Stephane & SORIA RAMIREZ Antonio & KRAUSE Jette & VAN DINGENEN Rita & SO CHAI Qimin & FU Sha & WEN X, 2020. "Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2019: Electrification for the low-carbon transition," JRC Research Reports JRC119619, Joint Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc119619
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    1. Mun Ho & Wolfgang Britz & Ruth Delzeit & Florian Leblanc & Roberto Roson & Franziska Schuenemann & Matthias Weitzel, 2020. "Modelling Consumption and Constructing Long-Term Baselines in Final Demand," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 63-108, June.
    2. Hallemans, L. & Ravyts, S. & Govaerts, G. & Fekriasl, S. & Van Tichelen, P. & Driesen, J., 2022. "A stepwise methodology for the design and evaluation of protection strategies in LVDC microgrids," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    3. Serenella Caravella & Valeria Costantini & Francesco Crespi, 2021. "Mission-Oriented Policies and Technological Sovereignty: The Case of Climate Mitigation Technologies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-16, October.
    4. Konjević, Lucija & Racar, Marko & Ilinčić, Petar & Faraguna, Fabio, 2023. "A comprehensive study on application properties of diesel blends with propanol, butanol, isobutanol, pentanol, hexanol, octanol and dodecanol," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PA).
    5. Gauthier de Maere d’Aertrycke & Yves Smeers & Hugues de Peufeilhoux & Pierre-Laurent Lucille, 2020. "The Role of Electrification in the Decarbonization of Central-Western Europe," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-20, September.
    6. Tamba, Marie & Krause, Jette & Weitzel, Matthias & Ioan, Raileanu & Duboz, Louison & Grosso, Monica & Vandyck, Toon, 2022. "Economy-wide impacts of road transport electrification in the EU," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    7. Ball-Burack, Ari & Salas, Pablo & Mercure, Jean-Francois, 2022. "Great power, great responsibility: Assessing power sector policy for the UK’s net zero target," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    8. KERAMIDAS Kimon & FOSSE Florian & DIAZ VAZQUEZ Ana & DOWLING Paul & GARAFFA Rafael & DESPRÉS Jacques & RUSS Hans Peter & SCHADE Burkhard & SCHMITZ Andreas & SORIA RAMIREZ Antonio & VANDYCK Toon & WEIT, 2021. "Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2021: Advancing towards climate neutrality," JRC Research Reports JRC126767, Joint Research Centre.
    9. Eimantas Neniškis & Arvydas Galinis & Egidijus Norvaiša, 2021. "Improving Transport Modeling in MESSAGE Energy Planning Model: Vehicle Age Distributions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-16, November.
    10. Iliana Ilieva & Bernt Bremdal, 2021. "Utilizing Local Flexibility Resources to Mitigate Grid Challenges at Electric Vehicle Charging Stations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-15, June.
    11. Fernández, Joaquín Delgado & Menci, Sergio Potenciano & Lee, Chul Min & Rieger, Alexander & Fridgen, Gilbert, 2022. "Privacy-preserving federated learning for residential short-term load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    12. Nelson, Hal T. & Wikstrom, Kris & Hass, Samantha & Sarle, Kirsten, 2021. "Half-length and the FACT framework: Distance-decay and citizen opposition to energy facilities," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).

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    Keywords

    Electrification; Paris Agreement; Climate Change mitigation; 2°C scenarios;
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