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Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy for Sustainable Post-conflict Transition

  • Ibrahim Elbadawi
  • Raimundo Soto

    ()

    (Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.)

This paper asks the question as to whether the choice of the exchange rate regime matters for post-conflict economic recovery and macro stabilization. Though an important aspect of the macroeconomic agenda for post-conflict, it has however, been largely ignored by the literature. We identify three main exchange rate regimes (fixed, managed floating and free float) and estimate their marginal contributions to post-conflict economic recovery and macro stabilization in the context of fully specified models of four pivotal macroeconomic variables: per capita GDP and export growth, the demand for money balances and inflation. The paper estimates extended versions of these models in a panel over 1970-2008 covering 132 countries, including the 38 post-conflict countries and 94 peaceful ones as a control group. The evidence suggests that the managed floating regime appears to have an edge on some critical areas of economic performance for post-conflict reconstruction.

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Paper provided by Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. in its series Documentos de Trabajo with number 392.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ioe:doctra:392
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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Carmen Reinhart, 1994. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade; Evidence From Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 94/140, International Monetary Fund.
  3. James Murdoch & Todd Sandler, 2002. "Civil wars and economic growth: A regional comparison," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(6), pages 451-464.
  4. Amelia Santos-Paulino & A. P. Thirlwall, 2004. "The impact of trade liberalisation on exports, imports and the balance of payments of developing countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(493), pages F50-F72, 02.
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