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La Conquista de la Inflación: Revisión y Análisis de la Literatura Reciente

  • Francisco Rosende

    ()

    (Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.)

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    A partir de mediados de los 80 se aprecia una caída importante en la inflación en las economías industrializadas, proceso que más tarde se extiende a numerosos países en desarrollo. Este proceso se produce en un contexto intelectual donde se aprecia la influencia de ideas como “la hipótesis de la tasa natural”, la importancia de las “expectativas racionales” y la “neutralidad de largo plazo” de la política monetaria. En esta perspectiva, resulta tentador suponer que la caída experimentada por la inflación en el mundo ha sido el resultado de un genuino progreso en el conocimiento adquirido por la Ciencia Económica. A partir de una revisión de la literatura reciente sobre las causas del aumento y posterior caída de la inflación en los Estados Unidos, se examina la validez y alcance de la visión optimista antes mencionada. En la segunda parte del trabajo, se revisan las causas de la caída que ésta ha experimentado la inflación en Chile en los últimos treinta años, a la luz de una identificación de las restricciones y objetivos de la política monetaria en dicho período.

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    Paper provided by Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. in its series Documentos de Trabajo with number 330.

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    Date of creation: 2008
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    Handle: RePEc:ioe:doctra:330
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    1. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Inflation Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 13147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    3. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2002. "The evolution of economic understanding and postwar stabilization policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 11-78.
    4. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
    5. Daron Acemoglu, 2007. "Introduction to Modern Economic Growth," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001721, UCLA Department of Economics.
    6. Walsh, Carl E, 1995. "Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 150-67, March.
    7. Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Inflation Targeting: An Overview," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.), Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 1, pages 001-022 Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Francisco Rosende, 1985. "Tipo de Cambio y Salarios Reales: Consideraciones sobre el Caso Chileno," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 22(67), pages 343-356.
    9. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1990. "Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-18.
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