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Das Thüringer Finanzministerium erwägt eine Reform der Konjunkturbereinigung, bei der das bisher verwendete Steuerniveauverfahren durch eine Konjunkturbereinigung auf der Grundlage der Potenzialschätzung der Bundesregierung ersetzt wird. Dabei soll das von der Bundesregierung geschätzte Potenzial – abweichend von der Vorgehensweise des Bundes und der Mehrheit der Länder – durch die Bildung von Durchschnitten über mehrere Jahre ge-glättet werden und damit weniger prozyklisch wirken. Mit dieser Herangehensweise soll auch die Planungssicherheit erhöht werden. Zusätzlich wird erwogen, dass das Land auch die kommunale Konjunkturkomponente nutzt. Eine Analyse auf der Grundlage von Echtzeitdaten für den Zeitraum von 2008 bis 2025 zeigt, dass die Durchschnittsbildung der Verwendung der unveränderten Potenzialschätzungen der Bundesregierung nicht unterlegen ist, in einigen Bereichen sogar besser abschneidet. Das gilt insbesondere für die häufig betonte Symmetrieanforderung. Aufgrund des (datenbedingt) kurzen Untersuchungszeitraums sind Generalisierungen schwierig. Es empfiehlt sich eine Testphase mit anschließender Evaluierung und ggf. weiteren Reformen

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  • Christoph Paetz

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Katja Rietzler

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

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  • Christoph Paetz & Katja Rietzler, 2025. "Das Thüringer Finanzministerium erwägt eine Reform der Konjunkturbereinigung, bei der das bisher verwendete Steuerniveauverfahren durch eine Konjunkturbereinigung auf der Grundlage der PotenzialschÃ," IMK Studies 101-2025, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:imk:studie:101-2025
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sebastian Gechert, 2015. "What fiscal policy is most effective? A meta-regression analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 553-580.
    2. Philipp Heimberger & Bernhard Schütz, 2022. "Evaluierung des Zusammenhangs von Produktionspotenzial und Budgetsemielastizität im Rahmen der deutschen Schuldenbremse," wiiw Research Reports in German language 22, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    3. Sebastian Gechert & Gustav Horn & Christoph Paetz, 2019. "Long‐term Effects of Fiscal Stimulus and Austerity in Europe," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(3), pages 647-666, June.
    4. Markus Kasseckert, 2022. "Status quo der unterschiedlichen Konjunkturbereinigungsverfahren der Länder [Economic Adjustment Pocedures of the German Bundesländer]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(10), pages 795-800, October.
    5. Philipp Heimberger & Bernhard Schütz, 2022. "Die Budgetsemielastizität und ihre Auswirkungen auf Verschuldungsspielräume im Rahmen der Schuldenbremse [Budget Semi-Elasticity and its Impact on Debt Flexibility in the Context of the Debt Brake]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(11), pages 834-837, November.
    6. Christian Ochsner & Christopher Zuber, 2022. "Die Konjunkturbereinigung der Schuldenbremse: ein Plädoyer für methodische Reformen [The Cyclical Adjustment Procedure of the German Debt Brake: a Plea for Methodical Reforms]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(11), pages 822-825, November.
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