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IMK-Steuerschätzung 2012-2016

Author

Listed:
  • Katja Rietzler

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Dieter Teichmann
  • Achim Truger

Abstract

Die Steuereinnahmen steigen im laufenden Jahr noch einmal kräftig auf 606 Mrd. Euro. Schon im kommenden Jahr wird sich die Dynamik infolge der Konjunktureintrübung spürbar abschwächen. Mittelfristig nehmen die Steuereinnahmen um gut 3 % jährlich zu und dürften 2016 etwas über 680 Mrd. Euro liegen. Für Steuersenkungen besteht derzeit weder Bedarf noch Spielraum. Die Staatsfinanzen leiden nach wie vor unter den Folgen der Krise 2008/2009: Das Steueraufkommen im Jahr 2012 wird um knapp 40 Mrd. Euro unter dem in der letzten Vorkrisenschätzung für dieses Jahr veranschlagten Wert liegen. In einem stärkeren Konjunktureinbruch als aktuell prognostiziert könnten Steuersenkungen leicht zu einer Kollision mit den Vorgaben der Schuldenbremse führen. Die wiederholt als Grund für Steuererleichterungen ins Feld geführte "kalte Progression" wird durch die deutlichen Steuersenkungen seit 1998 noch für einige Zeit mehr als ausgeglichen.

Suggested Citation

  • Katja Rietzler & Dieter Teichmann & Achim Truger, 2012. "IMK-Steuerschätzung 2012-2016," IMK Report 76-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:imk:report:76-2012
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    File URL: http://www.boeckler.de/pdf/p_imk_report_76_2012.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gustav A. Horn & Peter Hohlfeld & Fabian Lindner & Katja Rietzler & Sabine Stephan & Silke Tober & Andrew Watt, 2012. "Im Sog der Krise," IMK Report 74-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    2. Boss, Achim & Boss, Alfred & Boss, Thomas, 2006. "Der deutsche Einkommensteuertarif: Weiterhin eine Wachstumsbremse?," Kiel Working Papers 1304, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Heinz Gebhardt, 2012. "Steuermehreinnahmen eröffnen budgetäre Spielräume zum Abbau der kalten Progression," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 92(6), pages 392-398, June.
    4. Katja Rietzler & Dieter Teichmann & Achim Truger, 2013. "IMK Steuerschätzung 2013-2017," IMK Report 81-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    5. Achim Truger & Henner Will, 2012. "Gestaltungsanfällig und pro-zyklisch: Die deutsche Schuldenbremse in der Detailanalyse," IMK Working Paper 88-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    6. Eckhard Hein & Arne Heise & Achim Truger (ed.), 2004. "Finanzpolitik in der Kontroverse," Conference proceedings of the Research Network Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Policies (FMM), IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute, volume 7, number 7-2004, July.
    7. Achim Truger, 2010. "Schwerer Rückfall in alte Obsessionen – Zur aktuellen deutschen Finanzpolitik," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 7(1), pages 11-24.
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    2. Eicker-Wolf, Kai. & Truger, Achim., 2014. "Demystifying a "shining example" : German public finances under the debt brake," ILO Working Papers 994845193402676, International Labour Organization.

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