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Wachstumseffekte eines kreditfinanzierten Investitionsprogramms - Simulationsergebnisse für Deutschland mit dem makroökonomischen NiGEM-Modell - ein Update

Author

Listed:
  • Christoph Paetz

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Sebastian Watzka

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

Abstract

Es wird ein kreditfinanziertes öffentliches Investitionsprogramm für die deutsche Wirtschaft von 600 Milliarden Euro in den nächsten 10 Jahren mit dem NiGEM-Modell simuliert. Die Ergebnisse zeigen erhebliche Wachstumseffekte, besonders längerfristig aufgrund der positiven Auswirkungen des höheren öffentlichen Kapitalstocks auf private Investitionsentscheidungen. Das BIP könnte längerfristig zeitweise um rund 6 % über seinem Niveau ohne Investitionsoffensive liegen. Außerdem regt das Programm die private Investitionstätigkeit deutlich an, sodass die Unternehmensinvestitionen bis zu 10 % über ihr Niveau ohne Programm steigen. Konkret bedeutet das, dass die aufsummierte Wirtschaftsleistung Deutschlands von 2025 bis 2050 um bis zu 4800 Mrd. Euro höher ausfallen würde. 2045 läge das jährliche Pro-Kopf-BIP um 3600 Euro höher, als es ohne das Programm der Fall wäre. Zwar erhöht sich das staatliche Budgetdefizit während der zehnjährigen Laufzeit des Programms um etwa 1 % des BIP. Allerdings fällt auch in den Szenarien mit dem kreditfinanzierten Investitionsprogramm die Schuldenquote kontinuierlich. Aufgrund der positiven Wachstumseffekte des Programms könnte zur Mitte des Jahrhunderts die Schuldenquote sogar niedriger liegen als ohne das Programm. Ein solches kreditfinanziertes Investitionsprogramm birgt daher keine Gefahr für die deutsche Schuldentragfähigkeit, sondern könnte diese langfristig sogar verbessern.

Suggested Citation

  • Christoph Paetz & Sebastian Watzka, 2025. "Wachstumseffekte eines kreditfinanzierten Investitionsprogramms - Simulationsergebnisse für Deutschland mit dem makroökonomischen NiGEM-Modell - ein Update," IMK Policy Brief 185-2025, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:imk:pbrief:185-2025
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Investitionsprogramm; kreditfinanziert; öffentliche Investitionen; Schuldentragfähigkeit; crowding-in privater Investitionen;
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