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External Financing Risks: How Important is the Composition of the International Investment Position?

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Luis M. Cubeddu
  • Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan
  • Mr. Pau Rabanal

Abstract

Building on the vast literature, this paper focuses on the role of the structure of the international investment position (IIP) in affecting countries’ external vulnerabilities. Using a sample of 73 advanced and emerging economies and new database on the IIP’s currency composition, we find that the size and structure of external liabilities and assets, especially with regards to currency denomination, matter in understanding balance-of-payments pressures. Specifically, and beyond the standard macroeconomic factors highlighted in other studies, higher levels of gross external debt increase the likelihood of an external crisis, while higher levels of foreign-currency-denominated external debt increase the likelihood of sudden stops. Foreign reserve assets play a mitigating role, although with diminishing returns, and the combination of flow and stock imbalances amplifies external risks, especially during periods of heightened global risk aversion. The results are especially strong for emerging economies, where the impact of flow and stock imbalances and foreign currency mismatches are larger and more robust across specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Luis M. Cubeddu & Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan & Mr. Pau Rabanal, 2021. "External Financing Risks: How Important is the Composition of the International Investment Position?," IMF Working Papers 2021/020, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/020
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    Cited by:

    1. Jones, Callum & Rabanal, Pau, 2025. "Credit Cycles, fiscal policy, and global imbalances," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    2. Cecchetti, Stephen G. & Narita, Machiko & Rawat, Umang & Sahay, Ratna, 2023. "Addressing Spillovers from Prolonged U.S. Monetary Policy Easing," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    3. Uroš Herman & Tobias Krahnke, 2022. "Determinants and Effects of Countries’ External Capital Structure: A Firm-Level Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2022/038, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Agustín Bénétrix & Beren Demirölmez & Martin Schmitz, 2024. "The Shock Absorbing Role of Cross-border Investments: Net Positions Versus Currency Composition," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 363-394, April.
    5. Andrieş, Alin Marius & Chiper, Alexandra Maria & Ongena, Steven & Sprincean, Nicu, 2024. "External wealth of nations and systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    6. Mr. Alberto Behar & Ramin Hassan, 2022. "The Current Account Income Balance: External Adjustment Channel or Vulnerability Amplifier?," IMF Working Papers 2022/106, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Carrera Jorge & Montes-Rojas Gabriel & Panigo Demian & Toledo Fernando, 2024. "Income Inequality and External Wealth of Nations," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 47-62.
    8. Yang, Zheng & You, Yu, 2023. "Surges during sudden stops: Substitution effect between sectoral capital inflows in extreme episodes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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