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Uganda: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Uganda’s recent economic performance has been favorable. Real GDP growth is projected at 5.24 percent for FY2014/15 supported by a fiscal stimulus and a recovery in private consumption. Annual core inflation increased to 4.75 percent in May, from very depressed levels, mainly fueled by the shilling depreciation pass-through. The current account deficit is set to widen to about 9 percent of GDP reflecting increasing capital goods imports, but international reserves remain adequate. The outlook is promising. Growth is estimated at 5.75 percent in FY2015/16 and an average 6.25 percent over the medium-term.

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  • International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Uganda: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument," IMF Staff Country Reports 2015/175, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfscr:2015/175
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Musa Mayanja, Lwanga & Joseph, Mawejje, 2014. "Macroeconomic effects of budget deficits in Uganda: a VAR-VECM approach," Research Series 184172, Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC).
    2. Mr. Hamid R Davoodi & S. V. S. Dixit & Gabor Pinter, 2013. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the East African Community: An Empirical Investigation," IMF Working Papers 2013/039, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Bank for International Settlements, 2001. "Modelling aspects of the inflation process and the monetary transmission mechanism in emerging market countries," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 08.
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    5. Musa, Mayanja Lwanga & Joseph, Mawejje, 2014. "Macroeconomic effects of budget deficits in Uganda: a VAR-VECM approach," Research Series 206135, Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC).
    6. Alain Kabundi, 2012. "Working Paper 152 - Dynamics of Inflation in Uganda," Working Paper Series 401, African Development Bank.
    7. Mr. Ivohasina F Razafimahefa, 2012. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Sub-Saharan African Economies and its Determinants," IMF Working Papers 2012/141, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Mrs. Alexandra Born & Mrs. Sarwat Jahan & Mr. Edward R Gemayel, 2011. "What Can Low-Income Countries Expect From Adopting Inflation Targeting?," IMF Working Papers 2011/276, International Monetary Fund.
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    10. Musa Mayanja Lwanga & Joseph Mawejje, 2014. "Macroeconomic Effects of Budget Deficits in Uganda: A VAR-VECM Approach," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 4(6), pages 1-7.
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    Cited by:

    1. Charles Abuka & Ronnie K Alinda & Ms. Camelia Minoiu & José-Luis Peydró & Mr. Andrea F Presbitero, 2015. "Monetary Policy in a Developing Country: Loan Applications and Real Effects," IMF Working Papers 2015/270, International Monetary Fund.

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