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Working Paper 152 - Dynamics of Inflation in Uganda

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Abstract

This study identifies main factors underlying inflation in Uganda, both in the long - and short-rung, using monthly data from January 1999 to October 2011. It uses a single-equation Error Correction Model (ECM) based on the quantity theory of money including both external and domestic variables. The main finding is that both external and domestic factors explain dynamics in inflation in Uganda. Over the long-run, monetary aggregate, world food prices, and domestic supply and demand effects in agricultural sector are main determinants of inflation in Uganda. While money growth, world food prices, and energy prices, combined with domestic food prices have short-term impact on inflation. Finally, the study finds evidence of inflation inertia which can be attributed to expectations of agents and/or inflation persistence.

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  • Alain Kabundi, 2012. "Working Paper 152 - Dynamics of Inflation in Uganda," Working Paper Series 401, African Development Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:adb:adbwps:401
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    Cited by:

    1. Hall, Lisa M.H. & Buckley, Alastair R., 2016. "A review of energy systems models in the UK: Prevalent usage and categorisation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, pages 607-628.
    2. Emil Siriwardane, 2014. "Using proprietary credit default swap (CDS) data from 2010 to 2014, I show that capital fluctuations for sellers of CDS protection are an important determinant of CDS spread movements. I first establi," Working Papers 14-10, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury, revised 12 Feb 2015.
    3. Hannu Vartiainen, 2015. "Dynamic stable set as a tournament solution," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 45(2), pages 309-327, September.
    4. Berggren, Niclas & Nilsson, Therese, 2015. "Globalization and the transmission of social values: The case of tolerance," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 371-389.
    5. Arianna Galliera, 2016. "Self-Selecting Random or Cumulative Pay? A Bargaining Experiment," Working Papers CESARE 2/2016, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    6. Rosangela Bando & Xia Li, 2014. "The Effect of In-Service Teacher Training on Student Learning of English as a Second Language," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6596, Inter-American Development Bank.
    7. Brenčič, Vera, 2014. "Search online: Evidence from acquisition of information on online job boards and resume banks," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 112-125.
    8. Cansino, José M. & Sánchez-Braza, Antonio & Rodríguez-Arévalo, María L., 2015. "Driving forces of Spain׳s CO2 emissions: A LMDI decomposition approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 749-759.
    9. Moutsianas, Konstantinos A. & Kosmidou, Kyriaki, 2016. "Bank earnings volatility in the UK: Does size matter? A comparison between commercial and investment banks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 137-150.
    10. Anthony Orji & Onyinye .I. Anthony-Orji & Joan C. Okafor, 2015. "Inflation And Unemployment Nexus In Nigeria: Another Test of the Phillips Curve," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(5), pages 766-778, May.
    11. Julio J. Elías, 2014. "La Economía de los Trasplantes de Organos: Los Incentivos Importan," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 543, Universidad del CEMA.
    12. Rosangela Bando & Xia Li, 2014. "The Effect of In-Service Teacher Training on Student Learning of English as a Second Language," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 86173, Inter-American Development Bank.
    13. World Bank, 2013. "India Development Update, April 2013," World Bank Other Operational Studies 16542, The World Bank.
    14. Arianna Galliera & Noemi Pace, 2015. "To Switch or Not to Switch Payment Scheme? Determinants and Effects in a Bargaining Game," Working Papers 2015:33, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".

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