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Capital Controls and International Trade: An Industry Financial Vulnerability Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Kevin Lai

    (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

  • Tao Wang

    (Swarthmore College)

  • David Xu

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

Capital control policies have consequences for economic growth and international trade. Using data on 99 countries from 1995 to 2014, we find evidence that the effect of capital controls on trade vary across industries that have differing levels of external financing and asset tangibility. For exporting countries that tighten capital controls, industries that rely more heavily on external financing experience a larger decline in exports, while industries that possess more tangible assets experience a smaller decline in exports. For importing countries, tighter capital controls imply a decrease in trade, and this effect is uniform across all industries. The pattern with respect to external financing persists after accounting for availability of domestic credit and differences in industry shares and is predominantly found in countries with low levels of financial development. On the other hand, the varying effect related to asset tangibility is mostly absorbed by the domestic credit market.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin Lai & Tao Wang & David Xu, 2019. "Capital Controls and International Trade: An Industry Financial Vulnerability Perspective," Working Paper Series WP19-20, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp19-20
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    2. Mianshan Lai & Jia Hou, 2023. "Let us misinvoice more? The effect of de jure capital controls on trade misinvoicing," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(7), pages 2157-2186, July.
    3. Zehri, Chokri, 2022. "Asymmetric impact of capital controls on international trade," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    4. Zhu, Huiming & Deng, Xi & Ren, Yinghua & Huang, Xi, 2024. "Time-frequency co-movement and cross-quantile connectedness of exchange rates: Evidence from ASEAN+3 Countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    5. Toorajipour, Reza & Oghazi, Pejvak & Sohrabpour, Vahid & Patel, Pankaj C. & Mostaghel, Rana, 2022. "Block by block: A blockchain-based peer-to-peer business transaction for international trade," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    6. Campos, Rodolfo G. & Estefania-Flores, Julia & Furceri, Davide & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Timini, Jacopo, 2024. "Revisiting the effects of exchange and capital restrictions on trade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 763-778.
    7. Chokri Zehri, 2023. "The Volatility Lowering Effects of Capital Controls," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 15(3), pages 385-408, September.
    8. Soheila Khajoui & Saeid Dehyadegari & Sayyed Abdolmajid Jalaee, 2023. "Forecasting exports in selected OECD countries and Iran using MLP Artificial Neural Network," Papers 2312.15535, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
    • F68 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Policy

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