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¿Por qué los países tienen los regímenes de cambio flotante que tienen?

  • Ricardo Hausmann
  • Ugo Panizza
  • Ernesto H. Stein

(Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Los países que tienen lo que se considera como regímenes de cambio flotante (o de bandas muy amplias) muestran patrones notablemente diferentes de conducta. Mantienen niveles sumamente distintos de reservas internacionales y permiten niveles de inestabilidad en cuanto a las fluctuaciones del tipo de cambio muy distintos en relación con la inestabilidad que toleran bien sea al nivel de las reservas o en cuanto a las tasas de interés. Documentamos estas diferencias y presentamos un modelo que las explica como la respuesta óptima a un banco central que intenta minimizar una función de pérdida estándar, en un entorno en el que las empresas se hallan ante limitaciones crediticias y mercados incompletos restringen su capacidad de evitar descalces de la moneda. Este modelo sugiere que la diferencia en la manera en que los países manejan sus sistemas de cambio flotante puede tener que ver con sus diversos niveles de transmisión del tipo de cambio y las diferencias en su capacidad de evitar descalces cambiarios. Ponemos a prueba estas implicaciones y hallamos una relación muy estrecha y sólida entre el patrón de flotación y la capacidad de un país de endeudarse internacionalmente en su propia moneda. Hallamos elementos de juicio más débiles y menos valederos sobre la importancia de la transmisión que explican las diferencias entre los países, con respecto a su gestión monetaria y del tipo de cambio.

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Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series Research Department Publications with number 4206.

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Date of creation: May 2000
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4206
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  1. Sebastian Edwards & Miguel A. Savastano, 1999. "Exchange Rates in Emerging Economies: What Do We Know? What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 7228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Gordon de Brouwer & Neil R. Ericsson, 1995. "Modelling Inflation in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9510, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  3. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Abhijit Banerjee, 1999. "Capital Markets and the Instability of Open Economies," Working Papers 99.01, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  4. Laurence Ball, 1998. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 6760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Ernesto H. Stein & Jeffry Frieden, 2000. "The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy in Latin America: An Analytical Overview," Research Department Publications 3118, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  6. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 1999. "Capital Flow Reversals,the Exchange Rate Debate,and Dollarization," MPRA Paper 8951, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Philippe Bacchetta, 2000. "Monetary Policy with Foreign Currency Debt," Working Papers 00.03, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
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