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Net Inflows and Time-Varying Alphas: The Case of Hedge Funds

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  • Andrea Beltratti
  • Claudio Morana

Abstract

The growth in the size of the hedge funds industry has led some in-vestors to worry about a decline in alphas, associated with reduced arbitrage opportunities in international financial markets. We introduce a multivariate components model for returns and net relative inflows into hedge funds, accounting for time-varying market premia. We estimate alpha as an unobserved component variable of the econometric model. We then assess whether several categories of hedge funds do produce extra profits and whether the flows of funds into the industry are dynamically related to returns. Our results point to a positive correlation between past returns and future flows, while the evidence concerning the linkage between past flows and future returns is mixed. However, we do not find any structural decline in alpha for most hedge fund categories.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Beltratti & Claudio Morana, 2006. "Net Inflows and Time-Varying Alphas: The Case of Hedge Funds," ICER Working Papers 30-2006, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:icr:wpicer:30-2006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hedge funds; performance; asset pricing models; unobserved components models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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