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Hedge funds, managerial skill, and macroeconomic variables

  • Avramov, Doron
  • Kosowski, Robert
  • Naik, Narayan Y.
  • Teo, Melvyn
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    This paper evaluates hedge fund performance through portfolio strategies that incorporate predictability based on macroeconomic variables. Incorporating predictability substantially improves out-of-sample performance for the entire universe of hedge funds as well as for various investment styles. While we also allow for predictability in fund risk loadings and benchmark returns, the major source of investment profitability is predictability in managerial skills. In particular, long-only strategies that incorporate predictability in managerial skills outperform their Fung and Hsieh (2004) benchmarks by over 17% per year. The economic value of predictability obtains for different rebalancing horizons and alternative benchmark models. It is also robust to adjustments for backfill bias, incubation bias, illiquidity, fund termination, and style composition.

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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Economics.

    Volume (Year): 99 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 3 (March)
    Pages: 672-692

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:99:y:2011:i:3:p:672-692
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576

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    1. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A & Naik, Narayan & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2006. "Hedge Funds: Performance, Risk and Capital Formation," CEPR Discussion Papers 5565, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    17. Vikas Agarwal, 2004. "Risks and Portfolio Decisions Involving Hedge Funds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 63-98.
    18. Doron Avramov, 2004. "Stock Return Predictability and Asset Pricing Models," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(3), pages 699-738.
    19. Avramov, Doron & Chordia, Tarun, 2006. "Predicting stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 387-415, November.
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    22. Levy, H & Markowtiz, H M, 1979. "Approximating Expected Utility by a Function of Mean and Variance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 308-17, June.
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