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Macroeconomic Shocks and the Co-movement of Stock Returns in Latin America

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  • Araújo, Eurilton

Abstract

This paper studies the economic sources underlying the co-movement of real stock returns in Latin America. Following the literature on structural vector autoregressive models (SVARs), I use long-run restrictions to identify three structural shocks: demand, supply, and portfolio shocks. For some countries, portfolio shocks are important factors behind real stock returns. Furthermore, these shocks seem to be important in explaining cross-country co-movement patterns. However, these findings are not statistically strong due to the degree of uncertainty about the estimates of the importance of each structural shock and the cross-correlation coefficients. Therefore, macroeconomic shocks (supply and demand) cannot be neglected in accounting for the dynamics of real stock returns.
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  • Araújo, Eurilton, 2008. "Macroeconomic Shocks and the Co-movement of Stock Returns in Latin America," Insper Working Papers wpe_113, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibm:ibmecp:wpe_113
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Mutascu, Mihai Ioan & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2016. "Continuous wavelet transform and rolling correlation of European stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 237-256.
    2. Syllignakis, Manolis N. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2011. "Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion: Evidence from the Central and Eastern European markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 717-732, October.
    3. Walid, Chkili & Chaker, Aloui & Masood, Omar & Fry, John, 2011. "Stock market volatility and exchange rates in emerging countries: A Markov-state switching approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 272-292, September.
    4. Espinoza, Raphael & Prasad, Ananthakrishnan & Williams, Oral, 2011. "Regional financial integration in the GCC," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 354-370.
    5. Escobari, Diego & Garcia, Sergio & Mellado, Cristhian, 2017. "Identifying bubbles in Latin American equity markets: Phillips-Perron-based tests and linkages," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 90-101.
    6. Guneratne Wickremasinghe, 2011. "The Sri Lankan stock market and the macroeconomy: an empirical investigation," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 179-195, August.
    7. Jayasuriya, Shamila A., 2011. "Stock market correlations between China and its emerging market neighbors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 418-431.
    8. Piljak, Vanja, 2013. "Bond markets co-movement dynamics and macroeconomic factors: Evidence from emerging and frontier markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 29-43.

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