IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hwe/certdp/9702.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Evolution of Bank Credit Quality in Transition: Theory and Evidence from Romania

Author

Listed:
  • E.C. Perotti
  • O. Carare

Abstract

The paper develops a simple theoretical framework of financial discipline during the stabilization of a transition economy, from which it derives an empirical measure to assess whether the banking sector has started to act as a source of financial discipline, or just as a temporary buffer for enterprise losses. The model suggests that in the presence of active bank monitoring the correlation between bank lending and arrears should be decreasing over time, while it would increase if banks rolled over bad loans in the expectation of a bailout. We run the test on balance sheet data from a sample of Romanian state-owned enterprises over 1991-1994. We find evidence that, contrary to the findings of Pinto and van Wijnbergen for Poland, credit criteria used by Romanian banks show few signs of improvement. Most worrisome is the stability of the relation between bank credit and financial arrears, which seems to increase in strength over the period and remains very significant both statistically and in terms of economic impact. Bank credit appears negatively correlated with profitability; however, there is evidence that this is the result of better firms reducing their demand for credit as real rates rise. Reassuringly, credit to these firms depend positively on their receivables, while bank arrears have a insignificant impact. However, firm size was a significant determinant till 1993 and trade arrears become a strong determinant of credit in 1994. Banks appear to particularly soft towards the worse performing firms, particularly towards larger and more insolvent enterprises. There is evidence of a structural policy shift in 1993-1994 with banks refinancing trade arrears, perhaps following IMF pressure against further central bank bailouts of such arrears. Overall, the evidence suggests a largely passive attitude of banks towards the worse borrowers and only limited reallocation of credit to better users.

Suggested Citation

  • E.C. Perotti & O. Carare, 1997. "The Evolution of Bank Credit Quality in Transition: Theory and Evidence from Romania," CERT Discussion Papers 9702, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
  • Handle: RePEc:hwe:certdp:9702
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www2.hw.ac.uk/sml/downloads/cert/wpa/1997/dp9702.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Perotti, Enrico C. & Vesnaver, Luka, 2004. "Enterprise finance and investment in listed Hungarian firms," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 73-87, March.
    2. Heidhues, Franz & Davis, Junior R & Schrieder, Gertrud, 1998. "Agricultural Transformation and Implications for Designing Rural Financial Policies in Romania," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 351-372.
    3. Goerke, Laszlo, 1996. "Taxes on Payroll, Revenues and Profits in Three Models of Collective Bargaining," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(5), pages 549-565, November.
    4. James M. Malcomson, 1997. "Contracts, Hold-Up, and Labor Markets," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(4), pages 1916-1957, December.
    5. Debora Revoltella, 2001. "Financing Enterprises in the Czech Republic: Debt and Firm-specific Variables," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 231-246, October.
    6. Balla, Andrea, 2006. "Tőkeszerkezeti döntések - empirikus elemzés a magyar feldolgozóipari vállalatokról 1992-2001 között
      [Decisions affecting capital structure - an empirical analysis of Hungarian manufacturing firms i
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 681-700.
    7. Berglof, Erik & Roland, Gerard, 1998. "Soft Budget Constraints and Banking in Transition Economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 18-40, March.
    8. Guriev, Sergei & Makarov, Igor & Maurel, Mathilde, 2002. "Debt Overhang and Barter in Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 635-656, December.
    9. J.R. Davis & P.G. Hare, 1997. "Reforming the Systems of Rural Finance Provision in Romania: Some Options for Privatisation and Change," CERT Discussion Papers 9713, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
    10. Herrendorf, Berthold & Valentinyi, Akos & Waldmann, Robert, 1998. "Ruling out Indeterminacy: the Role of Heterogeneity," CEPR Discussion Papers 1858, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Djankov, Simeon, 2001. "Hardened Budgets and Enterprise Restructuring: Theory and an Application to Romania," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 749-763, December.
    12. J. Kornai & E. Maskin & G. Roland., 2004. "Understanding the Soft Budget Constraint," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 12.
    13. Hillier, G.H., 1995. "The union of best critical regions: complete classes, p-values, and model curvature," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9503, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    14. Klapper, Leora & Sarria-Allende, Virginia & Zaidi, Rida, 2006. "A firm-level analysis of small and medium size enterprise financing in Poland," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3984, The World Bank.
    15. Kornai, János, 2000. "A költségvetési korlát megkeményítése a posztszocialista országokban
      [Hardening of the budget constraint in the post-socialist countries]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 1-22.
    16. Emilio Colombo, 2001. "Determinants of corporate capital structure: evidence from Hungarian firms," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(13), pages 1689-1701.
    17. Blackburn, K. & Hung, V.T.Y., 1993. "A theory of growth, financial development and trade," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9303, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    18. Colombo, E., 1999. "The capital structure of Hungarian firms," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9903, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    19. Ulph, A., 1994. "Strategic environmental policy, international trade and the single European market (forthcoming in environmental policy with economic and political integration, Edward Elgar)," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9403, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hwe:certdp:9702. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Colin Miller). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cehwuuk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.