IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hrm/wpaper/4-2012.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Emerging from recession? Future prospects for the Irish economy 2012-2020

Author

Listed:
  • John Bradley

    (EMDS - Economic Modelling and Development Strategies)

  • Gerhard Untiedt

    (GEFRA - Gesellschaft fuer Finanz- und Regionalanalysen)

Abstract

How will Ireland emerge from recession and what path will the development take? In our recently published paper about the future prospects of the Irish economy we analyse and forecast using the HERMIN model of the Irish economy. The key message is that it will be a painful and slow recovery and that mainly the production side of the economy matters.

Suggested Citation

  • John Bradley & Gerhard Untiedt, 2012. "Emerging from recession? Future prospects for the Irish economy 2012-2020," HERMIN Economic Papers 4-2012, HERMIN.
    • Handle: RePEc:hrm:wpaper:4-2012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.herminonline.net/images/downloads/hep/hep-4-2012.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bergin, Adele & Cullen, Joseph & Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & McCoy, Daniel, 2003. "The ESRI Medium-Term Economic Model," Book Chapters, in: Medium-Term Review 1991-1996, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 75-122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Bradley, John & Whelan, Karl, 1997. "The Irish expansionary fiscal contraction: A tale from one small European economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 175-201, April.
    4. Roche, Maurice, 2003. "Will there be a Crash in Irish House Prices?," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2003(4-Winter), pages 1-16.
    5. McQuinn, Kieran & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2006. "Assessing the Role of Income and Interest Rates in Determining House Prices," Research Technical Papers 15/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
    6. Bradley, John & Fanning, Connell & Prendergast, Canice & Wynne, Mark, 1985. "Medium-Term Analysis of Fiscal Policy in Ireland: A Macroeconometric Study of the Period 1967-1980," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number GRS122, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yu Hsing, 2016. "Is Real Depreciation Expansionary? The Case of Ireland," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1-9.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kennedy, Gerard & McQuinn, Kieran, 2011. "Scenarios for Irish House Prices," Economic Letters 02/EL/11, Central Bank of Ireland.
    2. Jerome Creel, 1998. "L'assainissement budgétaire au Danemark entre 1983 et 1986 : l'anti-mythe (in French)," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 1998-02, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    3. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2013. "Fiscal Policy And Asset Prices," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 154-177, April.
    4. Addison-Smyth, Diarmaid & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2009. "Modelling Credit in the Irish Mortgage Market," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 40(4), pages 371-392.
    5. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/1769 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. D'Agostino, Antonello & McQuinn, Kieran & O' Reilly, Gerard, 2008. "Identifying and Forecasting House Price Dynamics in Ireland," Research Technical Papers 3/RT/08, Central Bank of Ireland.
    7. Jérôme Creel & Bruno Ducoudré & Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak, 2005. "Doit-on oublier la politique budgétaire ?. Une analyse critique de la nouvelle théorie anti-keynésienne des finances publiques," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 92(1), pages 43-97.
    8. Hjelm, Goran, 2002. " Effects of Fiscal Contractions: The Importance of Preceding Exchange Rate Movements," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(3), pages 423-441, September.
    9. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1769 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Hjelm, Göran & Johansson, Martin W, 2002. "Structural Change in Fiscal Policy and The Permanence of Fiscal Contractions - The Case of Denmark and Ireland," Working Papers 2002:11, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    11. Ant�nio Afonso, 2010. "Expansionary fiscal consolidations in Europe: new evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 105-109, January.
    12. António Afonso, 2001. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy in the EU-15," Working Papers Department of Economics 2001/07, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    13. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1769 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Eoin O'Malley, 2012. "A Survey of Explanations for the Celtic Tiger Boom," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp417, IIIS.
    15. Julia Darby & V. Anton Muscatelli & Graeme Roy, 2005. "Fiscal consolidation and decentralisation: a tale of two tiers," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 169-195, June.
    16. Luke Mcgrath & Stephen Hynes & John Mchale, 2022. "Reassessing Ireland’s economic development through the lens of sustainable development [Sustainability and the measurement of wealth]," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 26(3), pages 399-422.
    17. António Afonso, 2007. "Expansionary fiscal consolidations in Europe: part of conventional wisdom?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 50, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    18. John FitzGerald, 2019. "Contributing to Macro-Economic Policy in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(4), pages 613-623.
    19. Niamh Hardiman, 2013. "Rethinking the political economy of fiscal consolidation in two recessions in Ireland," Working Papers 201316, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    20. Steininger, Lea & Hesse, Casimir, 2024. "Buying into new ideas: The ECB’s evolving justification of unlimited liquidity," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 357, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    21. Jorg Bibow, 2004. "Fiscal Consolidation: Contrasting Strategies & Lessons From International Experiences," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_400, Levy Economics Institute.
    22. Antonio Spilimbergo & Steve Symansky & Olivier Blanchard & Carlo Cottarelli, 2009. "Fiscal Policy For The Crisis," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(02), pages 26-32, July.
    23. António Afonso, 2007. "An Avenue for Expansionary Fiscal Contractions," The IUP Journal of Public Finance, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3), pages 7-15, August.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hrm:wpaper:4-2012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Inge Khodjasteh (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hrmrade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.