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Emerging from recession? Future prospects for the Irish economy 2012-2020


  • John Bradley

    () (EMDS - Economic Modelling and Development Strategies)

  • Gerhard Untiedt

    () (GEFRA - Gesellschaft fuer Finanz- und Regionalanalysen)


How will Ireland emerge from recession and what path will the development take? In our recently published paper about the future prospects of the Irish economy we analyse and forecast using the HERMIN model of the Irish economy. The key message is that it will be a painful and slow recovery and that mainly the production side of the economy matters.

Suggested Citation

  • John Bradley & Gerhard Untiedt, 2012. "Emerging from recession? Future prospects for the Irish economy 2012-2020," HERMIN Economic Papers 4-2012, HERMIN.
  • Handle: RePEc:hrm:wpaper:4-2012

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Bergin, Adele & Cullen, Joseph & Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & McCoy, Daniel, 2003. "The ESRI Medium-Term Economic Model," Book Chapters,in: Medium-Term Review 1991-1996 Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 75-122 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Bradley, John & Whelan, Karl, 1997. "The Irish expansionary fiscal contraction: A tale from one small European economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 175-201, April.
    4. Roche, Maurice, 2003. "Will there be a Crash in Irish House Prices?," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2003(4-Winter), pages 1-16.
    5. McQuinn, Kieran & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2006. "Assessing the Role of Income and Interest Rates in Determining House Prices," Research Technical Papers 15/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
    6. Bradley, John & Fanning, Connell & Prendergast, Canice & Wynne, Mark, 1985. "Medium-Term Analysis of Fiscal Policy in Ireland: A Macroeconometric Study of the Period 1967-1980," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number GRS122.
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