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Forecasting Life Expectancy: Evidence from a New Survival Function

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  • Wong, Chi Heem
  • Tsui, Albert K

Abstract

We propose a new survival function to forecast life expectancies at various ages. The proposed model comprises the youth-to-adulthood component and the old-to-oldest-old component. It is able to closely fit adult survivorship of the US men and women in the period from 1950 to 2010. We find evidence that the forecasting performance of life expectancies by the proposed model compares favorably with those obtained from the popular Lee-Carter model (1992) and the shifting logistic model proposed by Bongaarts (2005).

Suggested Citation

  • Wong, Chi Heem & Tsui, Albert K, 2015. "Forecasting Life Expectancy: Evidence from a New Survival Function," CEI Working Paper Series 2015-1, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  • Handle: RePEc:hit:hitcei:2015-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eytan Sheshinski, 2007. "Introduction to The Economic Theory of Annuities," Introductory Chapters, in: The Economic Theory of Annuities, Princeton University Press.
    2. Bruce, Neil & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2013. "Demography And Growth: A Unified Treatment Of Overlapping Generations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(8), pages 1605-1637, December.
    3. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
    4. Robert McNown & Andrei Rogers, 1989. "Forecasting Mortality: A Parameterized Time Series Approach," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 26(4), pages 645-660, November.
    5. John Bongaarts, 2005. "Long-range trends in adult mortality: Models and projection methods," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(1), pages 23-49, February.
    6. Menahem E. Yaari, 1965. "Uncertain Lifetime, Life Insurance, and the Theory of the Consumer," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(2), pages 137-150.
    7. Eytan Sheshinski, 2007. "The Economic Theory of Annuities," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8536, October.
    8. Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
    9. Nan Li & Ronald Lee & Patrick Gerland, 2013. "Extending the Lee-Carter Method to Model the Rotation of Age Patterns of Mortality Decline for Long-Term Projections," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(6), pages 2037-2051, December.
    10. Shiro Horiuchi & John Wilmoth, 1998. "Deceleration in the age pattern of mortality at olderages," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 35(4), pages 391-412, November.
    11. Carolyn Njenga & Michael Sherris, 2011. "Modeling Mortality with a Bayesian Vector Autoregression," Working Papers 201105, ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales.
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    Keywords

    Lee-Carter model; Life expectancy; Mortality; Survival probability;

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