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Optimal Annuitization with Stochastic Mortality Probabilities: Working Paper 2013-05

  • Felix Reichling
  • Kent Smetters

Economic modeling dating back to Yaari (1965) shows that individuals who do not aim to leave bequests to future generations should put all of their investments into annuities rather than alternatives such as bonds. Annuities offer higher returns than alternative investment options and protect against longevity risk—they provide income in each remaining year of life, even if an individual lives for an usually long time. This paper models decisions about purchasing annuities in a context where individuals learn new information about their health status over time (that is, with stochastic

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Paper provided by Congressional Budget Office in its series Working Papers with number 44374.

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Date of creation: 26 Jun 2013
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Handle: RePEc:cbo:wpaper:44374
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  1. Cassio M. Turra & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2004. "The Impact of Health Status and Out-of-Pocket Medical Expenditures on Annuity Valuation," Working Papers wp086, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  2. Shinichi Nishiyama & Kent Smetters, 2005. "Consumption Taxes and Economic Efficiency with Idiosyncratic Wage Shocks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(5), pages 1088-1115, October.
  3. Peter Townley & Robin Boadway, 1986. "Social Security and the Failure of Annuity Markets," Working Papers 652, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  4. John Ameriks & Andrew Caplin & Steven Laufer & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2011. "The Joy of Giving or Assisted Living? Using Strategic Surveys to Separate Public Care Aversion from Bequest Motives," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(2), pages 519-561, 04.
  5. Mariacristina De Nardi & Eric French & John B. Jones, 2010. "Why Do the Elderly Save? The Role of Medical Expenses," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(1), pages 39-75, 02.
  6. Brugiavini, Agar, 1993. "Uncertainty resolution and the timing of annuity purchases," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 31-62, January.
  7. Eytan Sheshinski, 2007. "The Economic Theory of Annuities," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8536.
  8. Eytan Sheshinski, 2007. "Introduction to The Economic Theory of Annuities
    [The Economic Theory of Annuities]
    ," Introductory Chapters, Princeton University Press.
  9. Amy Finkelstein & James Poterba, 2000. "Adverse Selection in Insurance Markets: Policyholder Evidence from the U.K. Annuity Market," NBER Working Papers 8045, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1989. "How Strong are Bequest Motives? Evidence Based on Estimates of the Demand for Life Insurance and Annuities," NBER Working Papers 2942, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Shinichi Nishiyama, 2002. "Bequests, Inter Vivos Transfers, and Wealth Distribution," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(4), pages 892-931, October.
  12. Jeffrey R. Brown & Jeffrey R. Kling & Sendhil Mullainathan & Marian V. Wrobel, 2008. "Why Don’t People Insure Late-Life Consumption? A Framing Explanation of the Under-Annuitization Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 304-09, May.
  13. Palumbo, Michael G, 1999. "Uncertain Medical Expenses and Precautionary Saving Near the End of the Life Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(2), pages 395-421, April.
  14. Kotlikoff, Laurence J & Spivak, Avia, 1981. "The Family as an Incomplete Annuities Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(2), pages 372-91, April.
  15. Zhang, Harold H, 1997. " Endogenous Borrowing Constraints with Incomplete Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2187-2209, December.
  16. John Karl Scholz & Ananth Seshadri & Surachai Khitatrakun, 2006. "Are Americans Saving "Optimally" for Retirement?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(4), pages 607-643, August.
  17. Jeffrey R. Brown & Amy Finkelstein, 2011. "Insuring Long-Term Care in the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(4), pages 119-42, Fall.
  18. repec:cbo:report:43421 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Vasily Kartashov & Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell & Ralph Rogalla, 2011. "Lifecycle Portfolio Choice with Systematic Longevity Risk and Variable Investment-Linked Deferred Annuities," NBER Working Papers 17505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Kenneth L. Judd, 1998. "Numerical Methods in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100711, June.
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