IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/nhhfms/2019_007.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The optimal extraction rate versus the expected real return of a sovereign wealth fund: Some simulations

Author

Listed:
  • Aase, Knut K.

    (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics)

  • Bjerksund, Petter

    (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics)

Abstract

With reference to funds established for the benefits of the public at large, a university endowment, or other similar sovereign wealth fund, we demonstrate that the optimal extraction rate from the fund is significantly smaller than the expected real rate of return on the underlying fund. We consider the situation where the influx to the fund has stopped, it is in a steady state, and is invested broadly in the international financial markets. The optimal spending rate secures that the fund is a perpetuity, i.e., it will last 'forever', where the real value of the fund after payments is stationary, while spending according to the expected rate of return will deplete the fund with probability 1. Optimal portfolio choice and spending are then inconsistent. Our conclusions are contrary to the recommendations of an expert panel to the Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global, as well as at odds with part of the extant literature on the management of endowments of universities.

Suggested Citation

  • Aase, Knut K. & Bjerksund, Petter, 2019. "The optimal extraction rate versus the expected real return of a sovereign wealth fund: Some simulations," Discussion Papers 2019/7, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science, revised 03 Feb 2021.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2019_007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2614271
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Substitution, risk aversion and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 12, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1989. "Portfolio choice with non-expected utility in continuous time," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 313-317, October.
    3. Fatih Guvenen, 2009. "A Parsimonious Macroeconomic Model for Asset Pricing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(6), pages 1711-1750, November.
    4. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1991. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 263-286, April.
    5. Aase, Knut K., 2016. "Life Insurance And Pension Contracts Ii: The Life Cycle Model With Recursive Utility," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(1), pages 71-102, January.
    6. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1509, August.
    7. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-257, August.
    8. Duffie, Darrell & Epstein, Larry G, 1992. "Asset Pricing with Stochastic Differential Utility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 411-436.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Knut Anton Mork & Haakon Andreas Trønnes & Vegard Skonseng Bjerketvedt, "undated". "Capital preservation and current spending with Sovereign Wealth Funds and Endowment Funds: A simulation study," Working Paper Series 19222, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Knut K. Aase & Petter Bjerksund, 2021. "The Optimal Spending Rate versus the Expected Real Return of a Sovereign Wealth Fund," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-36, September.
    2. Kraft, Holger & Munk, Claus & Weiss, Farina, 2022. "Bequest motives in consumption-portfolio decisions with recursive utility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    3. Kihlstrom, Richard, 2009. "Risk aversion and the elasticity of substitution in general dynamic portfolio theory: Consistent planning by forward looking, expected utility maximizing investors," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(9-10), pages 634-663, September.
    4. Kabderian Dreyer, Johannes & Sharma, Vivek & Smith, William, 2023. "Warm-glow investment and the underperformance of green stocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 546-570.
    5. Bong-Gyu Jang & Hyeng Keun Koo & Yuna Rhee, 2016. "Asset demands and consumption with longevity risk," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(3), pages 587-633, August.
    6. Kraft, Holger & Seifried, Frank Thomas, 2014. "Stochastic differential utility as the continuous-time limit of recursive utility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 528-550.
    7. Smith, William T., 1999. "Risk, the Spirit of Capitalism and Growth: The Implications of a Preference for Capital," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 241-262, April.
    8. Chabakauri, Georgy, 2010. "Asset pricing with heterogeneous investors and portfolio constraints," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 43142, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Roger E. A. Farmer, 2018. "Pricing Assets in a Perpetual Youth Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 106-124, October.
    10. Giuliano, Paola & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2003. "Intertemporal substitution, risk aversion, and economic performance in a stochastically growing open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 529-556, August.
    11. Tim Bollerslev & Natalia Sizova & George Tauchen, 2011. "Volatility in Equilibrium: Asymmetries and Dynamic Dependencies," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 16(1), pages 31-80.
    12. Santanu Chatterjee & Paola Giuliano & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2004. "Capital Income Taxes and Growth in a Stochastic Economy: A Numerical Analysis of the Role of Risk Aversion and Intertemporal Substitution," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 6(2), pages 277-310, May.
    13. Frederick Ploeg, 2021. "Carbon pricing under uncertainty," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(5), pages 1122-1142, October.
    14. Hui Chen & Nengjiu Ju & Jianjun Miao, 2014. "Dynamic Asset Allocation with Ambiguous Return Predictability," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(4), pages 799-823, October.
    15. Joshua Aurand & Yu-Jui Huang, 2019. "Epstein-Zin Utility Maximization on a Random Horizon," Papers 1903.08782, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    16. Roussanov, Nikolai, 2014. "Composition of wealth, conditioning information, and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 352-380.
    17. Augeraud-Véron, Emmanuelle & Fabbri, Giorgio & Schubert, Katheline, 2021. "Prevention and mitigation of epidemics: Biodiversity conservation and confinement policies," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    18. Yu Chen & Thomas Cosimano & Alex Himonas & Peter Kelly, 2014. "An Analytic Approach for Stochastic Differential Utility for Endowment and Production Economies," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 44(4), pages 397-443, December.
    19. Campani, Carlos Heitor & Garcia, René, 2019. "Approximate analytical solutions for consumption/investment problems under recursive utility and finite horizon," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 364-384.
    20. Smith, William T., 1996. "Feasibility and transversality conditions for models of portfolio choice with non-expected utility in continuous time," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 123-131, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimal extraction rate; endowment funds; expected utility; recursive utility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2019_007. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stein Fossen (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dfnhhno.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.