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Gambler's fallacy in the classroom?

  • Hubert Janos Kiss

    ()

    (Game Theory Research Group, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences)

  • Adrienn Selei

    ()

    (Regional Centre for Energy Policy Research)

Does students' hand tremble after marking three consecutive identical answers in a multiple choice test? We design an experiment to study if the likelihood to change incorrectly to a different answer than the last one depends on the number of identical previous answers. We do not find a clear treatment effect, but observe that indeed the likelihood to change to an incorrect answer increases in the number of identical previous answers given by the student, even after controlling for how prepared (s)he was overall and how certain (s)he was that the answer to a given multiple choice question is correct. We claim that this behavior possibly is a reasonable reaction to previous exam experience.

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Paper provided by Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences in its series IEHAS Discussion Papers with number 1342.

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Length: 14 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:has:discpr:1342
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  1. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:4:y:2004:i:4:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Charles Ballard & Marianne Johnson, 2005. "Gender, Expectations, And Grades In Introductory Microeconomics At A Us University," Feminist Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 95-122.
  3. Stefano DellaVigna, 2009. "Psychology and Economics: Evidence from the Field," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 315-72, June.
  4. Albert Burgos, 2004. "Guessing and gambling," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 4(4), pages 1-10.
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