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How Serious is the Measurement-Error Problem in a Popular Risk-Aversion Task?

Author

Listed:
  • Fabien Perez

    () (ENSAE - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse Economique - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse Economique)

  • Guillaume Hollard

    () (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Radu Vranceanu

    () (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - UCP - Université de Cergy Pontoise - Université Paris-Seine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Delphine Dubart

    (ESSEC Business School - Essec Business School)

Abstract

This paper uses the test/retest data from the Holt and Laury (2002) experiment to provide estimates of the measurement error in this popular risk-aversion task. Maximum likelihood estimation suggests that the variance of the measurement error is approximately equal to the variance of the number of safe choices. Simulations confirm that the coefficient on the risk measure in univariate OLS regressions is approximately half of its true value. Unlike measurement error, the discrete transformation of continuous riskaversion is not a major issue. We discuss the merits of a number of different solutions: increasing the number of observations, IV and the ORIV method developed by Gillen et al. (2019).

Suggested Citation

  • Fabien Perez & Guillaume Hollard & Radu Vranceanu & Delphine Dubart, 2019. "How Serious is the Measurement-Error Problem in a Popular Risk-Aversion Task?," Working Papers hal-02291224, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02291224
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-essec.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02291224
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Hey & Andrea Morone & Ulrich Schmidt, 2009. "Noise and bias in eliciting preferences," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 213-235, December.
    2. Ben Gillen & Erik Snowberg & Leeat Yariv, 2019. "Experimenting with Measurement Error: Techniques with Applications to the Caltech Cohort Study," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(4), pages 1826-1863.
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    8. Gary Charness & Thomas Garcia & Theo Offerman & Marie Claire Villeval, 2020. "Do measures of risk attitude in the laboratory predict behavior under risk in and outside of the laboratory?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 99-123, April.
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    Keywords

    ORIV; Experiments; Measurement error; Risk-aversion; Test/retest;
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