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Terrorisme à grande échelle : partage de risques et politiques publiques

  • Erwann Michel-Kerjan

    (CECO - Laboratoire d'econometrie de l'école polytechnique - CNRS : UMR7657 - Polytechnique - X)

Les attentats du 11 septembre 2001 perpétrés contre les Etats-Unis ont eu des impacts majeurs sur I'assurabilité du risque terroriste -notamment comme événement le plus coûteux de toute l'histoire de l'assurance mondiale- et sur la responsabilité des gouvernements face à un nouveau type de " risque à grande échelle ". Il est d'usage depuis lors, au regard de la question de la couverture des risques catastrophiques, de comparer ces nouvelles configurations d'attaques terroristes à d'autres risques extrêmes comme les grandes catastrophes naturelles. Cependant, nous montrons que le terrorisme présente des caractéristiques tout à fait singulières dans une approche d'assurance du risque à grande échelle et, qui plus est, bien plus complexe à appréhender que les effets de la nature, soient-ils catastrophiques : Externalités négatives des efforts d'autoprotection ; Incertitude dynamique ; Distribution de l'information très particulière entre assurés, assureurs et gouvernement ; Etat porteur de risques de terrorisme. Tenant compte de ces singularités que l'article explicite, des réactions des marchés d'assurances et de réassurances, et du rôle des gouvernements, plusieurs questions émergent : Qui devrait assumer les coûts de tels événements ? Quels types de financements établir ? Quels mécanismes de couverture du risque, fondés sur un nécessaire partenariat public-privé, peuvent être élaborés ex ante ? Cet article, en s'appuyant sur les plus récents développements nationaux et internationaux, offre certains éléments de réponse et analyse également les systèmes provisoires de couverture mis en place en 2002 en France et aux Etats-Unis ; il propose une analyse dans un domaine encore relativement peu approfondi, en France, par la littérature économique.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number hal-00242918.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00242918
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  1. Howard Kunreuther & Erwann Michel-Kerjan & Beverly Porter, 2003. "Assessing, Managing, and Financing Extreme Events: Dealing with Terrorism," NBER Working Papers 10179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Froot, Kenneth A., 2001. "The market for catastrophe risk: a clinical examination," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 529-571, May.
  3. Erwann Michel-Kerjan & Patrick Lagadec, 2004. "Meeting the Challenge of Interdependent Critical Networks under Threat : The Paris Initiative," Working Papers hal-00242926, HAL.
  4. Nathalie De Marcelis-Warin & Erwann Michel-Kerjan, 2003. "Catastrophe risk sharing and public-private partnerships : From natural disasters to terrorism," Working Papers hal-00242981, HAL.
  5. Anne Gron, 1994. "Capacity Constraints and Cycles in Property-Casualty Insurance Markets," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(1), pages 110-127, Spring.
  6. Erwann Michel-Kerjan, 2003. "New Challenges in Critical Infrastructures : A US Perspective," Working Papers hal-00242947, HAL.
  7. Doherty, Neil A & Posey, Lisa Lipowski, 1997. "Availability Crises in Insurance Markets: Optimal Contracts with Asymmetric Information and Capacity Constraints," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 55-80, October.
  8. Kunreuther, Howard & Heal, Geoffrey, 2003. " Interdependent Security," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 26(2-3), pages 231-49, March-May.
  9. Doherty, Neil A & Lamm-Tennant, Joan & Starks, Laura T, 2003. " Insuring September 11th: Market Recovery and Transparency," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 26(2-3), pages 179-99, March-May.
  10. Erwann Michel-Kerjan & Burkhard Pedell, 2005. "Terrorism Risk Coverage in the Post-9/11 Era: A Comparison of New Public–Private Partnerships in France, Germany and the U.S.*," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 30(1), pages 144-170, January.
  11. Dwight M. Jaffee & Thomas Russell, 1996. "Catastrophe Insurance, Capital Markets and Uninsurable Risks," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 96-12, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  12. J. David Cummins & Neil A. Doherty & Anita Lo, 1999. "Can Insurers Pay for the "Big One"? Measuring the Capacity of an Insurance Market to Respond to Catastrophic Losses," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-11, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  13. Doherty, Neil A & Garven, James R, 1995. "Insurance Cycles: Interest Rates and the Capacity Constraint Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(3), pages 383-404, July.
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