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Systemic risk in energy derivative markets: a graph theory analysis


  • Delphine Lautier

    () (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris-Dauphine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Franck Raynaud

    (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris-Dauphine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)


This article uses graph theory to provide novel evidence regarding market integration, a favorable condition for systemic risk to appear in. Relying on daily futures returns covering a 12-year period, we examine cross- and inter-market linkages, both within the commodity complex and between commodities and other financial assets. In such a high dimensional analysis, graph theory enables us to understand the dynamic behavior of our price system. We show that energy markets - as a whole - stand at the heart of this system. We also establish that crude oil is itself at the center of the energy complex. Further, we provide evidence that commodity markets have become more integrated over time.

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  • Delphine Lautier & Franck Raynaud, 2012. "Systemic risk in energy derivative markets: a graph theory analysis," Post-Print halshs-00738201, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00738201
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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. repec:dau:papers:123456789/95 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Pindyck, Robert S & Rotemberg, Julio J, 1990. "The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(403), pages 1173-1189, December.
    3. Michael S. Haigh & David A. Bessler, 2004. "Causality and Price Discovery: An Application of Directed Acyclic Graphs," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 1099-1121, October.
    4. Adusei Jumah & Sohbet Karbuz & Gerhard Runstler, 1999. "Interest rate differentials, market integration, and the efficiency of commodity futures markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 101-108.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bates, Samuel & Angeon, Valérie & Ainouche, Ahmed, 2014. "The pentagon of vulnerability and resilience: A methodological proposal in development economics by using graph theory," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 445-453.
    2. repec:dau:papers:123456789/13631 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Champagne, Claudia, 2014. "The international syndicated loan market network: An “unholy trinity”?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 148-168.
    4. Guo, Yanfeng & Wen, Xiaoqian & Wu, Yanrui & Guo, Xiumei, 2016. "How is China's coke price related with the world oil price? The role of extreme movements," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 22-33.
    5. Kerste, Marco & Gerritsen, Matthijs & Weda, Jarst & Tieben, Bert, 2015. "Systemic risk in the energy sector—Is there need for financial regulation?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 22-30.
    6. Geng, Jiang-Bo & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2014. "A dynamic analysis on global natural gas trade network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 23-33.
    7. Delphine Lautier & Franck Raynaud, 2014. "Information Flows in the term structure of commodity prices," Post-Print hal-01655842, HAL.

    More about this item


    Minimum spanning trees; Systemic risk; Energy; Derivative markets; High dimensional analysis; Graph theory; Minimum spanning trees.;

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