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Systemic risk in energy derivative markets: a graph theory analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Delphine Lautier

    (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Franck Raynaud

    (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This article uses graph theory to provide novel evidence regarding market integration, a favorable condition for systemic risk to appear in. Relying on daily futures returns covering a 12-year period, we examine cross- and inter-market linkages, both within the commodity complex and between commodities and other financial assets. In such a high dimensional analysis, graph theory enables us to understand the dynamic behavior of our price system. We show that energy markets - as a whole - stand at the heart of this system. We also establish that crude oil is itself at the center of the energy complex. Further, we provide evidence that commodity markets have become more integrated over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Delphine Lautier & Franck Raynaud, 2012. "Systemic risk in energy derivative markets: a graph theory analysis," Post-Print halshs-00738201, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00738201
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00738201
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Delphine Lautier, 2005. "Segmentation in the crude oil term structure," Post-Print halshs-00367786, HAL.
    2. Pindyck, Robert S & Rotemberg, Julio J, 1990. "The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(403), pages 1173-1189, December.
    3. Réka Albert & Hawoong Jeong & Albert-László Barabási, 2000. "Error and attack tolerance of complex networks," Nature, Nature, vol. 406(6794), pages 378-382, July.
    4. Michael S. Haigh & David A. Bessler, 2004. "Causality and Price Discovery: An Application of Directed Acyclic Graphs," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 1099-1121, October.
    5. Adusei Jumah & Sohbet Karbuz & Gerhard Runstler, 1999. "Interest rate differentials, market integration, and the efficiency of commodity futures markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 101-108.
    6. Pawe{l} Sieczka & Janusz A. Ho{l}yst, 2008. "Correlations in commodity markets," Papers 0803.3884, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2009.
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    8. Sieczka, Paweł & Hołyst, Janusz A., 2009. "Correlations in commodity markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(8), pages 1621-1630.
    9. L. Kullmann & J. Kertesz & K. Kaski, 2002. "Time dependent cross correlations between different stock returns: A directed network of influence," Papers cond-mat/0203256, arXiv.org, revised May 2002.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

    Systemic risk; Energy; Derivative markets; High dimensional analysis; Graph theory; Minimum spanning trees.; Minimum spanning trees;
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