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Uncertainties in Forecasting: The Role of Strategic Modeling to Control Them

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  • Charles Raux

    (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The growing concern about environmental depredations from transport activity at short-range and long-range horizon calls for policies aiming at reorientation of travel demand trends. However every transport policy is subject to risks, environmental or financial ones, and has often long-range effects. This explains the renewed interest in tools which allow detection of these risks and their consequences. There is however a methodological challenge in the elaboration of these simulation tools because we have to take into account many different uncertainties.This paper analyzes the uncertainties associated with transport forecasts using a strategic model recently developed for Lyon's conurbation. Different sources of error and uncertainly are tested and compared by means of the model. It is argued that a strategy of systematic exploration of uncertainly is the preferred way to cope with it and to detect long-term risks associated with transport policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Raux, 2002. "Uncertainties in Forecasting: The Role of Strategic Modeling to Control Them," Post-Print halshs-00093145, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00093145
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00093145
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Charles Raux & Odile Andan & Patrick Bonnel, 1988. "Les analyses des comportements de mobilité individuelle quotidienne. Une synthèse bibliographique," Working Papers halshs-01708369, HAL.
    2. Bruno Faivre d'Arcier & Odile Andan & Charles Raux, 1998. "Stated adaptation surveys and choice process: Some methodological issues," Post-Print halshs-00139993, HAL.
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