IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-04347097.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The 1929 Crash of the New York Stock Exchange as a Liquidity Crisis
[Le Krach de 1929 du New York Stock Exchange comme crise de liquidité]

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Laurent Cadorel

    (EBS Paris - European Business School Paris, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

What caused the 1929 crash of the New York Stock Exchange? This paper provides a quantitative study of liquidity in the 1929 crash of the NYSE. I evidence the crash was indeed a liquidity crisis due to the liquidation of brokers' margin loans. Applying recent estimators of effective spreads and liquidity conditions from contemporary finance literature suggests a fourfold increase in spreads during the crash at the aggregate level. At the individual stock level, quoted bid-ask spreads suggest liquidity explains one-fifth of the variance in daily stock returns in the crash.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Laurent Cadorel, 2024. "The 1929 Crash of the New York Stock Exchange as a Liquidity Crisis [Le Krach de 1929 du New York Stock Exchange comme crise de liquidité]," Post-Print hal-04347097, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04347097
    DOI: 10.1111/ehr.13309
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://pse.hal.science/hal-04347097v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://pse.hal.science/hal-04347097v1/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/ehr.13309?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sirkin, Gerald, 1975. "The Stock Market of 1929 Revisited: A Note," Business History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(2), pages 223-231, July.
    2. Rappoport, Peter & White, Eugene N., 1993. "Was There a Bubble in the 1929 Stock Market?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 549-574, September.
    3. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1980. "Dealership market : Market-making with inventory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 31-53, March.
    4. Anari, Ali & Kolari, James & Mason, Joseph, 2005. "Bank Asset Liquidation and the Propagation of the U.S. Great Depression," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 753-773, August.
    5. Pierre-Cyrille Hautcoeur & Amir Rezaee & Angelo Riva, 2023. "Competition between securities markets: stock exchange industry regulation in the Paris financial center at the turn of the twentieth century," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 17(2), pages 261-299, May.
    6. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Fair, Ray C & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1988. "Forecasting the Depression: Harvard versus Yale," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 595-612, September.
    7. Gustavo S Cortes & Marc D Weidenmier, 2019. "Stock Volatility and the Great Depression," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(9), pages 3544-3570.
    8. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
    9. Hagströmer, Björn, 2021. "Bias in the effective bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 314-337.
    10. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1.
    11. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40.
    12. De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei, 1991. "The stock market bubble of 1929: evidence from clsoed-end mutual funds," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(3), pages 675-700, September.
    13. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    14. Shane A. Corwin & Paul Schultz, 2012. "A Simple Way to Estimate Bid‐Ask Spreads from Daily High and Low Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 719-760, April.
    15. Cortes, Gustavo S. & Taylor, Bryan & Weidenmier, Marc D., 2022. "Financial factors and the propagation of the Great Depression," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 577-594.
    16. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1978. "The Household Balance Sheet and the Great Depression," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(4), pages 918-937, December.
    17. Klein, Maury, 2001. "The Stock Market Crash of 1929: A Review Article," Business History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 75(2), pages 325-351, July.
    18. White, Eugene N, 1990. "The Stock Market Boom and Crash of 1929 Revisited," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 67-83, Spring.
    19. Roll, Richard, 1984. "A Simple Implicit Measure of the Effective Bid-Ask Spread in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1127-1139, September.
    20. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    21. Harris, Lawrence, 1990. "Statistical Properties of the Roll Serial Covariance Bid/Ask Spread Estimator," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 579-590, June.
    22. Farshid Abdi & Angelo Ranaldo, 2017. "A Simple Estimation of Bid-Ask Spreads from Daily Close, High, and Low Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(12), pages 4437-4480.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2013. "Market Liquidity—Theory and Empirical Evidence ," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1289-1361, Elsevier.
    2. Karol Jan Borowiecki & Michał Dzieliński & Alexander Tepper, 2023. "The great margin call: The role of leverage in the 1929 Wall Street crash," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(3), pages 807-826, August.
    3. Nina Karnaukh & Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2015. "Understanding FX Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(11), pages 3073-3108.
    4. Lee, Jieun & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "How does FX liquidity affect the relationship between foreign ownership and stock liquidity?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 101-119.
    5. Acheson, Graeme G. & Coyle, Christopher & Turner, John D., 2018. "Prices and informed trading: Evidence from an early stock market," QUCEH Working Paper Series 2018-05, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    6. Craig W. Holden & Stacey Jacobsen & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2014. "The Empirical Analysis of Liquidity," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 8(4), pages 263-365, December.
    7. Díaz, Antonio & Escribano, Ana, 2020. "Measuring the multi-faceted dimension of liquidity in financial markets: A literature review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    8. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Piccotti, Louis R., 2016. "Pricing errors and the geography of trade in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 46-69.
    10. Riccardo Poli & Marco Taboga, 2021. "A composite indicator of sovereign bond market liquidity in the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 663, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Lof, Matthijs & van Bommel, Jos, 2023. "Asymmetric information and the distribution of trading volume," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    12. Pascual, Roberto, 1999. "How does liquidity behave? A multidimensional analysis of NYSE stocks," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB 6433, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    13. Goldstein, Michael A. & Namin, Elmira Shekari, 2023. "Corporate bond liquidity and yield spreads: A review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    14. Charles W. Calomiris, 1993. "Financial Factors in the Great Depression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 61-85, Spring.
    15. Robert F. Bruner & Scott C. Miller, 2019. "The Great Crash of 1929: A Look Back After 90 Years," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 31(4), pages 43-58, December.
    16. Broto, Carmen & Lamas, Matías, 2020. "Is market liquidity less resilient after the financial crisis? Evidence for US Treasuries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 217-229.
    17. Ayad Assoil & Ndéné Ka & Jules Sadefo-Kamdem, 2021. "Analysis of the dynamic relationship between liquidity proxies and returns on the French CAC 40 index," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(10), pages 1-23, October.
    18. G. Wuyts, 2007. "Stock Market Liquidity.Determinants and Implications," Review of Business and Economic Literature, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Review of Business and Economic Literature, vol. 0(2), pages 279-316.
    19. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2009. "Liquidity and asset prices: a united framework," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 29303, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Banti, Chiara & Phylaktis, Kate & Sarno, Lucio, 2012. "Global liquidity risk in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 267-291.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    1929 crash; Stock market; NYSE; Financial crisis; Liquidity crisis; Krach 1929; Marchés financiers; Crise financière; Crise de liquidité;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04347097. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.