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How will the main risk factors contribute to the burden of non-communicable diseases under different scenarios by 2050? A modelling study

Author

Listed:
  • Marion Devaux

    (OCDE - Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)

  • Aliénor Lerouge

    (OCDE - Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)

  • Giovanna Giuffre

    (ISINNOVA - Institute of Studies for the Integration of Systems)

  • Susanne Giesecke

    (AIT - Austrian Institute of Technology [Vienna])

  • Sara Baiocco

    (ISINNOVA - Institute of Studies for the Integration of Systems, Centre for European Policy Studies)

  • Andrea Ricci

    (ISINNOVA - Institute of Studies for the Integration of Systems)

  • Francisco Reyes

    (Universidade de Vigo)

  • David Cantarero

    (UC / UniCan - Universidad de Cantabria [Santander] = University of Cantabria [Spain] = Université de Cantabrie [Espagne])

  • Bruno Ventelou

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Michele Cecchini

    (OCDE - Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)

Abstract

Background: The future burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) depends on numerous factors such as population ageing, evolution of societal trends, behavioural and physiological risk factors of individuals (e.g. smoking, alcohol use, obesity, physical inactivity, and hypertension). This study aims to assess the burden of NCDs in Europe by 2050 under alternative scenarios. Methods: This study combines qualitative and quantitative forecasting techniques to examine how population health in Europe may evolve from 2015 to 2050, taking into account future societal trends. Four scenarios were developed (one business-as-usual scenario, two response scenarios and one pessimistic scenario) and assessed against 'best' and 'worst'-case scenarios. This study provides quantitative estimates of both diseases and mortality outcomes, using a microsimulation model incorporating international survey data. Findings: Each scenario is associated with a different risk factor prevalence rate across Europe during the period 2015-2050. The prevalence and incidence of NCDs consistently increase during the analysed time period, mainly driven by population ageing. In more optimistic scenarios, diseases will appear in later ages, while in the pessimistic scenarios, NCDs will impair working-age people. Life expectancy is expected to grow in all scenarios, but with differences by up to 4 years across scenarios and population groups. Premature mortality from NCDs will be reduced in more optimistic scenarios but stagnate in the worst-case scenario. Interpretation: Population ageing will have a greater impact on the spread of NCDs by 2050 compared to risk factors. Nevertheless, risk factors, which are influenced by living environments, are an important factor for determining future life expectancy in Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Marion Devaux & Aliénor Lerouge & Giovanna Giuffre & Susanne Giesecke & Sara Baiocco & Andrea Ricci & Francisco Reyes & David Cantarero & Bruno Ventelou & Michele Cecchini, 2020. "How will the main risk factors contribute to the burden of non-communicable diseases under different scenarios by 2050? A modelling study," Post-Print hal-02873165, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02873165
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0231725
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://amu.hal.science/hal-02873165v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michele Cecchini & Marion Devaux & Franco Sassi, 2015. "Assessing the impacts of alcohol policies: A microsimulation approach," OECD Health Working Papers 80, OECD Publishing.
    2. United Nations UN, 2015. "Transforming our World: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development," Working Papers id:7559, eSocialSciences.
    3. M. Devaux & A. Lerouge & Bruno Ventelou & Y. Goryakin & A. Feigl & S. Vuik & M. Cecchini, 2019. "Assessing the potential outcomes of achieving the World Health Organization global non-communicable diseases targets for risk factors by 2025: is there also an economic dividend?," Post-Print hal-02475129, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Lay-Kim Tan & Geok-Pei Lim & Hui-Chin Koo & Muhd-Zulfadli-Hafiz Ismail & Yee-Mang Chan & Wahinuddin Sulaiman & Osman Ali & Chee-Cheong Kee & Mohd-Azahadi Omar, 2022. "Association between Adequate Fruit and Vegetable Intake and CVDs-Associated Risk Factors among the Malaysian Adults: Findings from a Nationally Representative Cross-Sectional Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-16, July.
    2. Yevgeniy Goryakin & Sophie P Thiébaut & Sébastien Cortaredona & M Aliénor Lerouge & Michele Cecchini & Andrea B Feigl & Bruno Ventelou, 2020. "Assessing the future medical cost burden for the European health systems under alternative exposure-to-risks scenarios," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-14, September.

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