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Lapse tables for lapse risk management in insurance: a competing risk approach


  • Xavier Milhaud

    () (SAF - Laboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon)

  • Christophe Dutang

    () (LMM - Laboratoire Manceau de Mathématiques - UM - Le Mans Université)


This paper deals with the crucial problem of modeling policyholders' behaviours in life insurance. We focus here on the surrender behaviours and model the contract lifetime through the use of survival regression models. Standard models fail at giving acceptable forecasts for the timing of surrenders because of too much heterogeneity, whereas the competing risk framework provides interesting insights and more accurate predictions. Numerical results follow from using Fine & Gray model ([13]) on an insurance portfolio embedding Whole Life contracts. Through backtests, this framework reveals to be quite efficient and recovers the empirical lapse rate trajectory by aggregating individual predicted lifetimes. These results could be particularly useful to design future insurance product. Moreover, this setting allows to calibrate experimental lapse tables, simplifying the lapse risk management for operational teams.

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  • Xavier Milhaud & Christophe Dutang, 2018. "Lapse tables for lapse risk management in insurance: a competing risk approach," Post-Print hal-01985256, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01985256
    DOI: 10.1007/s13385-018-0165-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Buchardt, Kristian, 2014. "Dependent interest and transition rates in life insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 167-179.
    2. Bacinello, Anna Rita, 2005. "Endogenous model of surrender conditions in equity-linked life insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 270-296, October.
    3. Weiyu Kuo & Chenghsien Tsai & Wei‐Kuang Chen, 2003. "An Empirical Study on the Lapse Rate: The Cointegration Approach," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 70(3), pages 489-508, September.
    4. Milhaud, Xavier, 2013. "Exogenous And Endogenous Risk Factors Management To Predict Surrender Behaviours," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(3), pages 373-398, September.
    5. Anna Rita Bacinello, 2005. "Modelling the Surrender Conditions in Equity-Linked Life Insurance," CeRP Working Papers 39, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
    6. David T. Russell & Stephen G. Fier & James M. Carson & Randy E. Dumm, 2013. "An Empirical Analysis of Life Insurance Policy Surrender Activity," Journal of Insurance Issues, Western Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 35-57.
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    Cited by:

    1. Abdul-Fatawu Majeed, 2020. "Accelerated Failure Time Models: An Application in Insurance Attrition [Modèles de temps de défaillance accéléré: une application dans l'attrition de l'assurance]," Post-Print hal-02953269, HAL.

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