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Clustering Financial Time Series: How Long is Enough?

Author

Listed:
  • Gautier Marti

    (LIX - Laboratoire d'informatique de l'École polytechnique [Palaiseau] - X - École polytechnique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Hellebore Capital Limited)

  • Sébastien Andler

    (ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon, Hellebore Capital Limited)

  • Frank Nielsen

    (LIX - Laboratoire d'informatique de l'École polytechnique [Palaiseau] - X - École polytechnique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Philippe Donnat

    (Hellebore Capital Limited)

Abstract

Researchers have used from 30 days to several years of daily returns as source data for clustering financial time series based on their correlations. This paper sets up a statistical framework to study the validity of such practices. We first show that clustering correlated random variables from their observed values is statistically consistent. Then, we also give a first empirical answer to the much debated question: How long should the time series be? If too short, the clusters found can be spurious; if too long, dynamics can be smoothed out.

Suggested Citation

  • Gautier Marti & Sébastien Andler & Frank Nielsen & Philippe Donnat, 2016. "Clustering Financial Time Series: How Long is Enough?," Post-Print hal-01400395, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01400395
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01400395
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Gautier Marti & Philippe Very & Philippe Donnat & Frank Nielsen, 2015. "A proposal of a methodological framework with experimental guidelines to investigate clustering stability on financial time series," Papers 1509.05475, arXiv.org.
    9. Tola, Vincenzo & Lillo, Fabrizio & Gallegati, Mauro & Mantegna, Rosario N., 2008. "Cluster analysis for portfolio optimization," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 235-258, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gautier Marti & Frank Nielsen & Miko{l}aj Bi'nkowski & Philippe Donnat, 2017. "A review of two decades of correlations, hierarchies, networks and clustering in financial markets," Papers 1703.00485, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
    2. Gautier Marti & Frank Nielsen & Philippe Donnat & S'ebastien Andler, 2016. "On clustering financial time series: a need for distances between dependent random variables," Papers 1603.07822, arXiv.org.
    3. Jos'e Vin'icius de Miranda Cardoso & Jiaxi Ying & Daniel Perez Palomar, 2020. "Algorithms for Learning Graphs in Financial Markets," Papers 2012.15410, arXiv.org.
    4. Deborah Miori & Mihai Cucuringu, 2022. "Returns-Driven Macro Regimes and Characteristic Lead-Lag Behaviour between Asset Classes," Papers 2209.00268, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    5. Alejandro Rodriguez Dominguez, 2022. "Portfolio Optimization based on Neural Networks Sensitivities from Assets Dynamics respect Common Drivers," Papers 2202.08921, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.

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    Keywords

    Financial time series; Clustering; Convergence rates; Correlation;
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