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Perturbations extrêmes sur la dérive de mortalité anticipée

Author

Listed:
  • Frédéric Planchet

    (SAF - Laboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon)

  • Marc Juillard

    (SAF - Laboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon)

  • Pierre-Emmanuel Thérond

    (SAF - Laboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon)

Abstract

L'objectif de ce travail est de proposer un modèle réaliste et opérationnel pour mesurer le risque systématique associé à la construction de tables de mortalité prospectives. Une application du modèle à l'évaluation de l'engagement d'un engagement de retraite est proposée. Le modèle présenté est construit sur la base d'un modèle de Lee-Carter. Les tables prospectives stochastiques sont obtenues en modélisant l'incertitude attachée au paramètre de tendance du modèle.

Suggested Citation

  • Frédéric Planchet & Marc Juillard & Pierre-Emmanuel Thérond, 2008. "Perturbations extrêmes sur la dérive de mortalité anticipée," Post-Print hal-00397324, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00397324
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00397324
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brouhns, Natacha & Denuit, Michel & Vermunt, Jeroen K., 2002. "A Poisson log-bilinear regression approach to the construction of projected lifetables," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 373-393, December.
    2. Ronald Lee, 2000. "The Lee-Carter Method for Forecasting Mortality, with Various Extensions and Applications," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 80-91.
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