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Dynamically consistent preferences under imprecise probabilistic information

Author

Listed:
  • Frank Riedel

    (UJ - University of Johannesburg, Universitat Bielefeld)

  • Jean-Marc Tallon

    () (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Vassili Vergopoulos

    () (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics)

Abstract

This paper extends decision theory under imprecise probabilistic information to dynamic settings. We explore the relationship between the given objective probabilistic information, an agent's subjective multiple priors, and updating. Dynamic consistency implies rectangular sets of priors at the subjective level. As the objective probabilistic information need not be consistent with rectangularity at the subjective level, agents might select priors outside the objective probabilistic information while respecting the support of the given set of priors. Under suitable additional axioms, the subjective set of priors belongs to the rectangular hull of the objective probabilistic information.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank Riedel & Jean-Marc Tallon & Vassili Vergopoulos, 2018. "Dynamically consistent preferences under imprecise probabilistic information," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01886573, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01886573
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01886573
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hanany, Eran & Klibanoff, Peter, 2007. "Updating preferences with multiple priors," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(3), September.
    2. Gajdos, T. & Hayashi, T. & Tallon, J.-M. & Vergnaud, J.-C., 2008. "Attitude toward imprecise information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 27-65, May.
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    11. Daniel Ellsberg, 1961. "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(4), pages 643-669.
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