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Understanding the processes of firm growth - a closer look at serial growth rate correlation

  • Alex Coad

    ()

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Max Planck Institute of Economics - Evolutionary Economics Group)

Serial correlation in annual growth rates carries a lot of information on growth processes - it allows us to directly observe firm performance as well as to test hypotheses. Using a 7-year balanced panel of 10 000 French manufacturing firms, we observe that small firms typically are subject to negative correlation of growth rates, whereas larger firms display positive correlation. Furthermore, we find that those small firms that experience extreme positive or negative growth in any one year are unlikely to repeat this performance in the following year.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00118801.

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Date of creation: Jun 2006
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Publication status: Published in Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques 2006.51 - ISSN 1624-0340. 2006
Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00118801
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00118801
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  1. Francesca Lotti & Enrico Santarelli & Marco Vivarelli, 2003. "Does Gibrat's Law hold among young, small firms?," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 213-235, August.
  2. Giulio Bottazzi & Alex Coad & Nadia Jacoby & Angelo Secchi, 2005. "Corporate growth and industrial dynamics: evidence from french manufacturing," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00261616, HAL.
  3. Goddard, John & Wilson, John & Blandon, Peter, 2002. "Panel tests of Gibrat's Law for Japanese manufacturing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 415-433, March.
  4. G. Bottazzi & E. Cefis & G. Dosi & A. Secchi, 2007. "Invariances and Diversities in the Patterns of Industrial Evolution: Some Evidence from Italian Manufacturing Industries," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 137-159, June.
  5. Koenker,Roger, 2005. "Quantile Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521845731, November.
  6. Alex Coad & Rekha Rao, 2006. "As luck would have it : innovation and market value in "complex technology" sectors," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques r06069, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  7. Giulio Bottazzi & Angelo Secchi, 2006. "Explaining the distribution of firm growth rates," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 37(2), pages 235-256, 06.
  8. Geroski, Paul A, 1999. "The Growth of Firms in Theory and in Practice," CEPR Discussion Papers 2092, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Giulio Bottazzi & Elena Cefis & Giovanni Dosi, 2001. "Corporate Growth and Industrial Structure. Some Evidence from the Italian Manufacturing Industry," LEM Papers Series 2001/08, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  10. Bottazzi, Giulio & Dosi, Giovanni & Lippi, Marco & Pammolli, Fabio & Riccaboni, Massimo, 2001. "Innovation and corporate growth in the evolution of the drug industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1161-1187, July.
  11. Geroski, Paul A & Machin, Stephen & Walters, Christopher F, 1997. "Corporate Growth and Profitability," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 171-89, June.
  12. Kumar, M S, 1985. "Growth, Acquisition Activity and Firm Size: Evidence from the United Kingdom," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 327-38, March.
  13. Chesher, Andrew, 1979. "Testing the Law of Proportionate Effect," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(4), pages 403-11, June.
  14. Friedman, Milton, 1992. "Do Old Fallacies Ever Die?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 2129-32, December.
  15. Paul Geroski & Mariana Mazzucato, 2002. "Learning and the sources of corporate growth," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(4), pages 623-644, August.
  16. Giulio Bottazzi & Angelo Secchi, 2003. "Common Properties and Sectoral Specificities in the Dynamics of U.S. Manufacturing Companies," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 23(3_4), pages 217-232, December.
  17. Ajit Singh & Geoffrey Whittington, 1975. "The Size and Growth of Firms," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(1), pages 15-26.
  18. Alex Coad, 2006. "Towards an Explanation of the Exponential Distribution of Firm Growth Rates," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00113346, HAL.
  19. Boeri, Tito & Cramer, Ulrich, 1992. "Employment growth, incumbents and entrants : Evidence from Germany," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 545-565, December.
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