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As luck would have it : innovation and market value in "complex technology" sectors

  • Alex Coad

    ()

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne, Max Planck Institute of Economics - Evolutionary Economics Group)

  • Rekha Rao

    (Max Planck Institute of Economics - Evolutionary Economics Group)

How do financial markets respond to firms' efforts at innovation ? To answer this question, we measure innovation by creating a synthetic indicator based on a firm's recent history of R&D expenditure and patent applications. We focus on four 2-digit «complex technology» manufacturing sectors that have been hand-picked according to their high propensities to innovate. Whilst standard regression techniques find a positive relationship between innovation and growth, quantile regression analysis adds a new dimension to the literature. We identify those «superstar» firms with the highest stock market valuations and show that these firms owe a lot of their success to their previous efforts at innovation. However, there are also other firms whose attempts to innovate are virtually ignored by financial markets. Our results emphasize the fundamental uncertainty of R&D.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00119062.

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Date of creation: Nov 2006
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Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00119062
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00119062
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  1. Zvi Griliches, 1998. "Patent Statistics as Economic Indicators: A Survey," NBER Chapters, in: R&D and Productivity: The Econometric Evidence, pages 287-343 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Hall, Bronwyn H & Jaffe, Adam B & Trajtenberg, Manuel, 2001. "The NBER Patent Citations Data File: Lessons, Insights and Methodological Tools," CEPR Discussion Papers 3094, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Mata, Jose & Machado, Jose A. F., 1996. "Firm start-up size: A conditional quantile approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1305-1323, June.
  4. Mahmut Yasar & Carl H. Nelson & Roderick Rejesus, 2003. "Productivity and Exporting Status of Manufacturing Firms: Evidence from Quantile Regressions," Emory Economics 0323, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
  5. Bronwyn H. Hall & Raffaele Oriani, 2004. "Does the Market Value R&D Investment by European Firms? Evidence from a Panel of Manufacturing Firms in France, Germany, and Italy," NBER Working Papers 10408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Jaffe, Adam B, 1986. "Technological Opportunity and Spillovers of R&D: Evidence from Firms' Patents, Profits, and Market Value," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 984-1001, December.
  7. Bronwyn H. Hall and Adam Jaffe, and Manuel Trajtenberg., 2001. "Market Value and Patent Citations: A First Look," Economics Working Papers E01-304, University of California at Berkeley.
  8. Zvi Griliches, 1984. "Market Value, R&D, and Patents," NBER Chapters, in: R&D, Patents, and Productivity, pages 249-252 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Roger Koenker & Kevin F. Hallock, 2001. "Quantile Regression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 143-156, Fall.
  10. repec:fth:harver:1473 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
  12. Bronwyn H. Hall & Adam Jaffe & Manuel Trajtenberg, 2005. "Market Value and Patent Citations," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 36(1), pages 16-38, Spring.
  13. Pakes, Ariel, 1985. "On Patents, R & D, and the Stock Market Rate of Return," Scholarly Articles 3436409, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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