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Interest rates, Eurobonds and intra-European exchange rate misalignments: The challenge of sustainable adjustments in the Eurozone

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  • Vincent Duwicquet

    () (CLERSE - Centre Lillois d’Études et de Recherches Sociologiques et Économiques - UMR 8019 - Université de Lille - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Jacques Mazier

    () (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Jamel Saadaoui

    () (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The euro crisis shed lights on the nature of alternative adjustment mechanisms in a monetary union characterized by a large heterogeneity. Exchange rate adjustments being impossible, it remains very few efficient alternative mechanisms. At the level of the whole eurozone the euro is close to its equilibrium parity. But the euro is strongly overvalued for Southern European countries, France included, and largely undervalued for Northern European countries, especially Germany. This paper gives a new evaluation of these exchange rate misalignments inside the eurozone, using a FEER approach, and examines the evolution of competitiveness. In a second step, we use a two-country SFC model of a monetary union with endogenous interest rates and Eurobonds issuance. Three main results are found. Firstly, facing a competitiveness loss in southern countries due to exchange rates misalignments, increasing intra-European financing by banks of northern countries or other institutions could contribute to reduce the debt burden and induce a partial recovery but public debt would increase. Secondly, the implementation of Eurobonds as a tool to partially mutualize European sovereign debt would have a rather similar positive impact, but with a public debt limited to 70 percent of GDP. Finally, Eurobonds could also be used to finance large European projects which could impulse a stronger recovery in the entire zone with stabilized current account imbalances. However, the creation of a European institution in charge of the issuance of the Eurobonds would face strong political obstacles.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincent Duwicquet & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2016. "Interest rates, Eurobonds and intra-European exchange rate misalignments: The challenge of sustainable adjustments in the Eurozone," CEPN Working Papers hal-01295438, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:cepnwp:hal-01295438
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01295438
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vincent Duwicquet & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2013. "Désajustements de change, fédéralisme budgétaire et redistribution. Comment s'ajuster en union monétaire," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 57-96.
    2. Se-Eun Jeong & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2010. "Exchange Rate Misalignments at World and European Levels: a FEER Approach," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 121, pages 25-58.
    3. Jacques Mazier & Sophie Saglio, 2008. "Interdependency and adjustments in the European Union," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 17-44.
    4. repec:oup:cambje:v:42:y:2018:i:1:p:47-94. is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Vincent Duwicquet & Jacques Mazier, 2010. "Financial integration and macroeconomic adjustments in a monetary union," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 333-370, January.
    6. Jacques Mazier & Sebastian Valdecantos, 2015. "A multi-speed Europe: is it viable? A stock-flow consistent approach," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 12(1), pages 93-112, April.
    7. Christian A Belabed & Thomas Theobald & Till van Treeck, 2018. "Income distribution and current account imbalances," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(1), pages 47-94.
    8. Asdrubali, Pierfederico & Kim, Soyoung, 2004. "Dynamic risksharing in the United States and Europe," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 809-836, May.
    9. Jacques Mazier & Pascal Petit, 2013. "In search of sustainable paths for the eurozone in the troubled post-2008 world," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(3), pages 513-532.
    10. Wynne Godley & Marc Lavoie, 2006. "Comprehensive accounting in simple open economy macroeconomics with endogenous sterilization or flexible exchange rates," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 28(2), pages 241-276, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vincent Duwicquet & Jacques Mazier & Pascal Petit & Jamel Saadaoui, 2015. "The Future of the Euro," Post-Print hal-01399157, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro Crisis; Exchange Rate Misalignments; Eurobonds; Interest Rate;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian

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