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Interest rates, Eurobonds and intra-European exchange rate misalignments: The challenge of sustainable adjustments in the Eurozone

Listed author(s):
  • Vincent Duwicquet

    ()

    (CLERSE - Centre Lillois d’Études et de Recherches Sociologiques et Économiques - UMR 8019 - Université de Lille, Sciences et Technologies - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Jacques Mazier

    ()

    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Jamel Saadaoui

    ()

    (BETA - Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

The euro crisis shed lights on the nature of alternative adjustment mechanisms in a monetary union characterized by a large heterogeneity. Exchange rate adjustments being impossible, it remains very few efficient alternative mechanisms. At the level of the whole eurozone the euro is close to its equilibrium parity. But the euro is strongly overvalued for Southern European countries, France included, and largely undervalued for Northern European countries, especially Germany. This paper gives a new evaluation of these exchange rate misalignments inside the eurozone, using a FEER approach, and examines the evolution of competitiveness. In a second step, we use a two-country SFC model of a monetary union with endogenous interest rates and Eurobonds issuance. Three main results are found. Firstly, facing a competitiveness loss in southern countries due to exchange rates misalignments, increasing intra-European financing by banks of northern countries or other institutions could contribute to reduce the debt burden and induce a partial recovery but public debt would increase. Secondly, the implementation of Eurobonds as a tool to partially mutualize European sovereign debt would have a rather similar positive impact, but with a public debt limited to 70 percent of GDP. Finally, Eurobonds could also be used to finance large European projects which could impulse a stronger recovery in the entire zone with stabilized current account imbalances. However, the creation of a European institution in charge of the issuance of the Eurobonds would face strong political obstacles.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series CEPN Working Papers with number hal-01295438.

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Date of creation: 23 Mar 2016
Handle: RePEc:hal:cepnwp:hal-01295438
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01295438
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  1. Vincent Duwicquet & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2013. "Désajustements de change, fédéralisme budgétaire et redistribution. Comment s'ajuster en union monétaire," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 57-96.
  2. Christian A. Belabed & Thomas Theobald & Till van Treeck, 2013. "Income Distribution and Current Account Imbalances," IMK Working Paper 126-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  3. Se-Eun Jeong & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2010. "Exchange Rate Misalignments at World and European Levels: a FEER Approach," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 121, pages 25-58.
  4. Vincent Duwicquet & Jacques Mazier, 2010. "Financial integration and macroeconomic adjustments in a monetary union," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 33(2), pages 333-370, January.
  5. Jacques Mazier & Pascal Petit, 2013. "In search of sustainable paths for the eurozone in the troubled post-2008 world," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(3), pages 513-532.
  6. Asdrubali, Pierfederico & Kim, Soyoung, 2004. "Dynamic risksharing in the United States and Europe," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 809-836, May.
  7. Jacques Mazier & Sophie Saglio, 2008. "Interdependency and adjustments in the European Union," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 17-44.
  8. Jacques Mazier & Sebastian Valdecantos, 2015. "A multi-speed Europe: is it viable? A stock-flow consistent approach," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 12(1), pages 93-112, April.
  9. Wynne Godley & Marc Lavoie, 2006. "Comprehensive accounting in simple open economy macroeconomics with endogenous sterilization or flexible exchange rates," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 28(2), pages 241-276, January.
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