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QuBe-Szenario 3/2017 Wirtschaft 4.0 und die Elektroindustrie

Author

Listed:
  • Anke Mönnig

    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

  • Dr. Marc Ingo Wolter

    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

  • Dr. Gerd Zika

    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

  • Tobias Maier

    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

Abstract

In Wolter et al. (2015, 2016) ist erstmals eine ganzheitliche Abschätzung der Auswirkungen der digitalen Transformation auf die Volkswirtschaft und seine Branchen mithilfe eines makroökonometrischen Input-Output-Modells vorgenommen worden. Die von Wischmann et al. (2015) aufgeführten Kritikpunkte anderer Studien sind hierin weitestgehend berücksichtigt. Mithilfe einer fünfstufigen Szenarioanalyse werden die Auswirkungen der auf sich aufbauenden Annahmen bzgl. Investitionen, Kosten- und Gewinnstrukturen, Berufsfeldstruktur und Nachfrageimpulse quantifiziert und zu einem Gesamtszenario zusammengefasst. Geschätzt werden in einer Wirtschaft-4.0-Welt (Wolter et al. 2016) rund 30 Tsd. Arbeitsplätze verloren gehen – bei einem gleichzeitigen Zuwachs am Bruttoinlandsprodukt von 100 Mrd. EUR (preisbereinigt). Die dem Ergebnis zugrundeliegenden Annahmen sind in Wolter et al. (2016) ausführlich beschrieben worden. Aus Gründen der Operationalisierbarkeit wurden viele der Annahmen pauschal über alle Wirtschaftsbereiche festgelegt. In Einzelfällen wurde lediglich zwischen Branchen des verarbeitenden Gewerbes und des Dienstleistungsbereichs unterschieden. Nur wenige Einstellungen waren branchenspezifisch. Allerdings ist anzunehmen, dass die Branchen unterschiedlich stark, zu unterschiedlichen Zeitpunkten und aus unterschiedlichen Gründen von der Digitalisierung betroffen sein werden. Diese branchenspezifische Nachbesserung soll in diesem Diskussionspapier für die Branche der Elektroindustrie nachgeholt werden. Aufbauend auf den Berechnungen und Einstellungen von Wolter et al. (2016) werden die Annahmen für die Elektroindustrie spezifiziert. Die Ergebnisse werden an den Ergebnissen von Wolter et al. (2016) gespiegelt.

Suggested Citation

  • Anke Mönnig & Dr. Marc Ingo Wolter & Dr. Gerd Zika & Tobias Maier, 2017. "QuBe-Szenario 3/2017 Wirtschaft 4.0 und die Elektroindustrie," GWS Discussion Paper Series 17-6, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:gws:dpaper:17-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arnold Tukker & Erik Dietzenbacher, 2013. "Global Multiregional Input-Output Frameworks: An Introduction And Outlook," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 1-19, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    QuBe; Elektroindustrie; Wirtschaft 4.0; Digitalisierung;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L6 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

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