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Is This Novel Technology Going to be a Hit? Antecedents Predicting Technological Novelty Diffusion

Author

Listed:
  • Michele Pezzoni

    (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France)

  • Reinhilde Veugelers

    (KULeuven)

  • Fabiana Visentin

    (Maastricht University
    UNU-MERIT)

Abstract

Despite the high interest of scholars in identifying breakthrough inventions, little attention has been devoted to investigating how the technological content of those breakthrough inventions is re-used over time. We overcome this limitation by focusing on the dynamics of diffusion of the novel technologies incorporated in inventions. Specifically, we consider the factors affecting the time needed for a technology to be legitimated as well as its technological potential. We find that the dynamics of diffusion of a novel technology are affected by the characteristics of its building blocks, i.e. the technological components that combined together for the first time generate a novel technology. Combining similar technological components, components familiar to the inventors' community, and components with a high level of appropriability generates a technology that requires a short time to be legitimated but with a low technological potential. Combining technological components with a science-based nature generates technologies with a longer legitimation time but also higher technological potential. Finally, when large firms are the main innovative actors, novel technologies show a higher technological potential.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Pezzoni & Reinhilde Veugelers & Fabiana Visentin, 2018. "Is This Novel Technology Going to be a Hit? Antecedents Predicting Technological Novelty Diffusion," GREDEG Working Papers 2018-22, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), University of Nice Sophia Antipolis.
  • Handle: RePEc:gre:wpaper:2018-22
    as

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    File URL: http://www.gredeg.cnrs.fr/working-papers/GREDEG-WP-2018-22.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2018
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    technological novelty; diffusion; combinatorial process; initial characteristics; patent data;

    JEL classification:

    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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