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How fast is this novel technology going to be a hit? Antecedents predicting follow-on inventions

Author

Listed:
  • Michele Pezzoni

    (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur)

  • Reinhilde Veugelers

    (KU Leuven - Catholic University of Leuven = Katholieke Universiteit Leuven)

  • Fabiana Visentin

    (UNU-MERIT - UNU-MERIT - United Nations University - Maastricht University)

Abstract

Despite the high interest of scholars in identifying successful inventions, little attention has been devoted to investigate how (fast) the novel ideas embodied in original inventions are re-used in follow-on inventions. We overcome this limitation by empirically mapping and characterizing the trajectory of novel technologies’ re-use in follow-on inventions. Specifically, we consider the factors affecting the time needed for a novel technology to be legitimated as well as to reach its full technological impact. We analyze how these diffusion dynamics are affected by the antecedent characteristics of the novel technology. We characterize novel technologies as those that make new combinations with existing technological components and trace these new combinations in follow-on inventions. We find that novel technologies combining for the first time technological components which are similar and which are familiar to the inventors’ community require a short time to be legitimated but show a low technological impact. In contrast, combining for the first time technological components with a science-based nature generates technologies with a long legitimation time but also high technological impact.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Pezzoni & Reinhilde Veugelers & Fabiana Visentin, 2022. "How fast is this novel technology going to be a hit? Antecedents predicting follow-on inventions," Post-Print hal-03494455, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03494455
    DOI: 10.1016/j.respol.2021.104454
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    Cited by:

    1. Sam Arts & Nicola Melluso & Reinhilde Veugelers, 2023. "Beyond Citations: Measuring Novel Scientific Ideas and their Impact in Publication Text," Papers 2309.16437, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2024.
    2. Corvello, Vincenzo & Belas, Jaroslav & Giglio, Carlo & Iazzolino, Gianpaolo & Troise, Ciro, 2023. "The impact of business owners’ individual characteristics on patenting in the context of digital innovation," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 155(PA).
    3. Bing Li & Shiji Chen & Vincent Larivière, 2023. "Interdisciplinarity affects the technological impact of scientific research," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(12), pages 6527-6559, December.
    4. Matthias Niggli & Christian Rutzer, 2023. "Digital technologies, technological improvement rates, and innovations “Made in Switzerland”," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 159(1), pages 1-31, December.
    5. Fang, Xubing & Liu, Maotao, 2024. "How does the digital transformation drive digital technology innovation of enterprises? Evidence from enterprise's digital patents," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    6. Jie Liu, 2024. "“Divergent” cross-domain stretching for technology fusion: validating the knowledge partition search model using patent data," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 129(6), pages 3023-3043, June.
    7. Keye Wu & Ziyue Xie & Jia Tina Du, 2024. "Does science disrupt technology? Examining science intensity, novelty, and recency through patent-paper citations in the pharmaceutical field," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 129(9), pages 5469-5491, September.
    8. Deyu Li & Floor Alkemade & Koen Frenken & Gaston Heimeriks, 2023. "Catching up in clean energy technologies: a patent analysis," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 693-715, April.
    9. Alessio Bumbea & Giuseppe Espa & Marco Gentile & Annamaria Giuffrida & Andrea Mazzitelli & Marco Pini, 2025. "Economic complexity as tool to assess the territorial development: a novel empirical approach inspired by network theory applied to patent data," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1939-1977, June.
    10. Yoo, Seh-Hyun & Kim, Donggyu & Jin, Byungchae, 2025. "CEO turnover and innovation: Exploring the advisory role of inventor top management team members," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    11. Matte Hartog & Andres Gomez-Lievano & Ricardo Hausmann & Frank Neffke, 2024. "Inventing modern invention: the professionalization of technological progress in the US," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2408, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Apr 2024.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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