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The Double-Digit Trigger: Estimating Inflation Attention Thresholds in Ukraine Using Parliamentary Speeches

Author

Listed:
  • Maksym Homeniuk

    (National Bank of Ukraine)

Abstract

This paper estimates Ukraine's inflation attention threshold using a text-based proxy derived from the relative frequency of the word "inflation" in parliamentary speeches. During a relatively stable macroeconomic period between 2017 and 2022, the estimated threshold is approximately 9-10 percent. This finding aligns with results obtained using Google Trends data, where attention increased just prior to inflation reaching double-digit levels. Crucially, the parliamentary proxy also facilitates estimation for another stable period preceding the global financial crisis (2002-2007). The remarkably similar threshold estimates across both stable periods suggest that attention dynamics in Ukraine exhibit structural consistency under non-crisis conditions. These findings underscore the value of parliamentary speech analysis as a robust tool for tracking inflation salience in contexts with limited data availability.

Suggested Citation

  • Maksym Homeniuk, 2025. "The Double-Digit Trigger: Estimating Inflation Attention Thresholds in Ukraine Using Parliamentary Speeches," IHEID Working Papers 14-2025, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp14-2025
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    File URL: http://repec.graduateinstitute.ch/pdfs/Working_papers/HEIDWP14-2025.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oliver Pfauti, 2023. "The Inflation Attention Threshold and Inflation Surges," Papers 2308.09480, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    2. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy

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