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Supply and demand for cereals in Pakistan, 2010-2030:

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  • Nazli, Hina
  • Haider, Syed Hamza
  • Tariq, Asjad

Abstract

This paper presents the projections of future demand and supply for these two main cereals for 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030. For projecting household demand, the Almost Ideal Demand System (LA-AIDS) is estimated for eight food items using the data of nationally representative household survey. The results are used to project the household demand under three different scenarios. These scenarios are: a business-as-usual situation (per capita income is assumed to grow at a rate of 3 percent per year), an optimistic situation (assumed growth rate of per capita income 4 percent per year), and a pessimistic situation (per capita income is assumed to grow by 2 percent per year). Cereal supply is projected using a short-run production function approach (with such variables as area and share irrigated fixed exogenously at observed levels). This projection is then used to estimate the levels of wheat and rice produced for 2009–2030, with the projections of the exogenous determinants of production based on linear time trend models. The results show that the demand for wheat and rice will more than double by 2030. The projections of supply show an increase in the output of wheat and rice by 2030. From 2008 to 2030, the demand for wheat will increase from 19 million tons to 30 million tons. Projection estimates of wheat supply based on the production function technique show that by 2030, wheat output will reach 28 million tons, and rice output will be 11 million tons. The demand for wheat is expected to be greater than its supply whereas production of rice will be higher than consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Nazli, Hina & Haider, Syed Hamza & Tariq, Asjad, 2012. "Supply and demand for cereals in Pakistan, 2010-2030:," IFPRI discussion papers 1222, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1222
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zahoor ul Haq & Hina Nazli & Karl Meilke, 2008. "Implications of high food prices for poverty in Pakistan," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 477-484, November.
    2. Sadiq Ahmed & Hans G.P. Jansen, 2010. "Managing Food Price Inflation in South Asia," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 16357.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ali, Mubarik & Ahmed, Faryal & Channa, Hira & Davies, Stephen, 2016. "Pakistan’s fertilizer sector: Structure, policies, performance, and impacts:," IFPRI discussion papers 1516, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cereal crops; cereal demand; cereal supply; cereal production; Wheat; rice; household consumption; Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia (CSISA);

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