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One-sided test for an unknown breakpoint: theory, computation, and application to monetary theory

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  • Arturo Estrella
  • Anthony P. Rodrigues

Abstract

The econometrics literature contains a variety of two-sided tests for unknown breakpoints in time-series models with one or more parameters. This paper derives an analogous one-sided test that takes into account the direction of the change for a single parameter. In particular, we propose a sup t statistic, which is distributed as a normalized Brownian bridge. The method is illustrated by testing whether the reaction of monetary policy to inflation has increased since 1959.

Suggested Citation

  • Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 2005. "One-sided test for an unknown breakpoint: theory, computation, and application to monetary theory," Staff Reports 232, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:232
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    3. Ghysels, Eric & Guay, Alain & Hall, Alastair, 1998. "Predictive tests for structural change with unknown breakpoint," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 209-233, February.
    4. Donald W. K. Andrews, 2003. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point: A Corrigendum," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 395-397, January.
    5. Bai, Jushan, 1999. "Likelihood ratio tests for multiple structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 299-323, August.
    6. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    7. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2003. "Monetary Policy Shifts and the Stability of Monetary Policy Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(1), pages 94-104, February.
    8. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    9. Estrella, Arturo, 2003. "Critical Values And P Values Of Bessel Process Distributions: Computation And Application To Structural Break Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(6), pages 1128-1143, December.
    10. Arturo Estrella, 2005. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict Output and Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(505), pages 722-744, July.
    11. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Linda S. Goldberg & Michael W. Klein, 2005. "Establishing Credibility: Evolving Perceptions of the European Central Bank," NBER Working Papers 11792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Sandip Sinharay, 2017. "Some Remarks on Applications of Tests for Detecting A Change Point to Psychometric Problems," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1149-1161, December.
    3. Jean-Marc Azaïs & Alan Genz, 2013. "Computation of the Distribution of the Maximum of Stationary Gaussian Processes," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 969-985, December.

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    Keywords

    time series analysis; Inflation (Finance); Monetary policy;
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