Can a fiscal contraction strengthen a currency?: Some doubts about conventional Mundell-Fleming results
This article demonstrates that a fiscal expansion can induce both a short- and long-run depreciation of a currency and, by parallel arguments, fiscal contraction can induce short- and long-run appreciation. This possibility hinges on a country being a debtor with at least some of its debt servicing costs reset periodically in response to changes in its domestic interest rates. In the simpler version of our model, we show that a fiscal expansion can lead to an instantaneous depreciation and a current account deficit, causing the currency to continue to depreciate over time. The current account deficit develops despite the currency depreciation because debt service payments increase due to the higher interest rates induces by the fiscal stimulus. The second version of our model assumes the trade deficit responds with a lag to relative prices. This model implies that expansionary fiscal policy may induce not only a currency depreciation and a current account deterioration, but a widening of the trade deficit as well. In both models, an instantaneous depreciation following a fiscal expansion becomes more likely if a country's net external debt is large.
|Date of creation:||1996|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 33 Liberty Street, New York, NY 10045-0001|
Web page: http://www.newyorkfed.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bertola, Giuseppe & Drazen, Allan, 1991.
"Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
599, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bertola, Giuseppe & Drazen, Allan, 1993. "Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 11-26, March.
- Giuseppe Bertola & Allan Drazen, 1991. "Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity," NBER Working Papers 3844, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bertola, G. & Drazen, A., 1991. "Trigger Pointsand Budget Cuts ; Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity," Papers 26-91, Tel Aviv.
- Barro, Robert J, 1974.
"Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
- Frenkel, Jacob A & Razin, Assaf, 1986. "Fiscal Policies in the World Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 564-594, June.
- Krugman, Paul, 1989. "The J-Curve, the Fire Sale, and the Hard Landing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 31-35, May.
- Evans, Paul, 1986. "Is the dollar high because of large budget deficits?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 227-249, November.
- Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
- Jeffrey Sachs & Charles Wyplosz, 1984. "Real Exchange Rate Effects of Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 1255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kawai, Masahiro & Maccini, Louis J, 1995. "Twin Deficits versus Unpleasant Fiscal Arithmetic in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 639-58, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fednrp:9629. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Amy Farber)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.