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Sales and the real effects of monetary policy

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  • Patrick J. Kehoe
  • Virgiliu Midrigan

Abstract

In the data, a sizable fraction of price changes are temporary price reductions referred to as sales. Existing models include no role for sales. Hence, when confronted with data in which a large fraction of price changes are sales related, the models must either exclude sales from the data or leave them in and implicitly treat sales like any other price change. When sales are included, prices change frequently and standard sticky price models with this high frequency of price changes predict small effects from money shocks. If sales are excluded, prices change much less frequently and a standard sticky price model with this low frequency of price changes predict much larger effects of money shocks. This paper adds a motive for sales in a parsimonious extension of existing sticky price models. We show that the model can account for most of the patterns of sales in the data. Using our model as the data generating process, we evaluate the existing approaches and find that neither well approximates the real effects of money in our economy in which sales are explicitly modeled.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick J. Kehoe & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2007. "Sales and the real effects of monetary policy," Working Papers 652, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmwp:652
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alvarez, Fernando & Le Bihan, Hervé & Lippi, Francesco, 2013. "Small and large price changes and the propagation of monetary shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 9770, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Peter Karadi & Adam Reiff, 2007. "Menu Costs and Inflation Asymmetries Some Micro Data Evidence," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0706, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
    3. Bartosz Mackowiak & Frank Smets, 2008. "On implications of micro price data for macro models," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 53.
    4. Dora Gicheva & Justine Hastings & Sofia Villas-Boas, 2007. "Revisiting the Income Effect: Gasoline Prices and Grocery Purchases," NBER Working Papers 13614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Carstensen, Kai & Schenkelberg, Heike, 2011. "Time- or State-Dependence? An Analysis of Inflation Dynamics using German Business Survey Data," Discussion Papers in Economics 12170, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    6. Cavallo, Alberto & Rigobon, Roberto, 2011. "The Distribution of the Size of Price Changes," Working Papers 2011-011, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    7. Peter J. Klenow & Oleksiy Kryvtsov, 2008. "State-Dependent or Time-Dependent Pricing: Does it Matter for Recent U.S. Inflation?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(3), pages 863-904.
    8. Martin Eichenbaum & Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2008. "Reference Prices and Nominal Rigidities," NBER Working Papers 13829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Alvarez González, Luis Julián, 2008. "What Do Micro Price Data Tell Us on the Validity of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 2, pages 1-36.
    10. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Engel, Eduardo M.R.A., 2007. "Price stickiness in Ss models: New interpretations of old results," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(Supplemen), pages 100-121, September.
    11. Abe, Naohito & Tonogi, Akiyuki, 2010. "Micro and macro price dynamics in daily data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 716-728, September.
    12. Bouakez, Hafedh & Cardia, Emanuela & Ruge-Murcia, Francisco, 2014. "Sectoral price rigidity and aggregate dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-22.
    13. Filip Matějka, 2016. "Rationally Inattentive Seller: Sales and Discrete Pricing," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 83(3), pages 1125-1155.
    14. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2013. "Inventories, Markups, and Real Rigidities in Menu Cost Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(1), pages 249-276.
    15. Ellis, Colin, 2009. "Do supermarket prices change from week to week?," Bank of England working papers 378, Bank of England.
    16. Daniel Kaufmann, 2010. "The Timing of Price Changes and the Role of Heterogeneity," Working Papers 2010-02, Swiss National Bank.
    17. Tifaoui, Said & Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan von, 2015. "Temporary sales prices and findings of asymmetric vertical price transmission in scanner data," 89th Annual Conference, April 13-15, 2015, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 204295, Agricultural Economics Society.
    18. Patrick Lünnemann & Thomas Y. Mathä, 2010. "Consumer price behaviour: evidence from Luxembourg micro data," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2-3), pages 177-192.
    19. Chahrour, Ryan A., 2011. "Sales and price spikes in retail scanner data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 143-146, February.
    20. Philip Bunn & Colin Ellis, 2012. "Examining The Behaviour Of Individual UK Consumer Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(558), pages 35-55, February.

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    Keywords

    Price levels ; Monetary policy;

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