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How Rich Will China Become?

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  • Jingyi Jiang
  • Kei-Mu Yi

Abstract

China?s impressive economic growth since the 1980s raises the question of how much richer it will become over future decades. Its growing share of the world economy affects other national economies. Understanding the future course of the Chinese economy is therefore important for both fiscal and monetary policymaking in the United States and elsewhere. Using fundamental growth theory, data from China and from Korea and Japan?s similar ?miracle? growth experiences, we provide a suggestive calculation for China?s future per capita income. Our ballpark estimate is that China?s per capita income relative to that of the United States will grow by a factor of two to three over the next half-century.

Suggested Citation

  • Jingyi Jiang & Kei-Mu Yi, 2015. "How Rich Will China Become?," Economic Policy Paper 15-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmep:15-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    2. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2010. "Why Have Economic Reforms in Mexico Not Generated Growth?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1005-1027, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Barker, Tom & Üngör, Murat, 2019. "Vietnam: The next asian Tiger?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 96-118.

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